Nick Tedeschi's NFL Previews and Selections 2007

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Weekly Suggested Bets 2007-08

NFL Selections: Conference Championship Weekend

Best Bet: Green Bay Packers -7

New England -13.5 (v San Diego) at 1.91 The Greek - 1 Unit

The Chargers made a grave mistake by challenging the superiority of the New England Patriots. Defensive end Igor Olshansky commented after the Chargers victory over the Colts that it would be the Patriots who should be worried, not his team, despite most bookmakers offering the Chargers a two-touchdown start. The Patriots have made a habit of forcing individuals with large mouths to eat their words. See the Pittsburgh game. The Patriots don’t need any extra incentive to blast the Chargers - the prospect of a Super Bowl and an undefeated season as well as the nasty recent history that exists between the two teams. But they will take Olshanky’s words and ensure he is made to pay. On the field, the Patriots outmatch the Chargers in nearly all departments. Brady is coming off the greatest individual season in the history of professional football and his combination with a quality receiving corps is second-to-none. The Chargers defense, while adequate, will struggle to shutdown such an offensive juggernaut keen to pile on the points. Injuries are a major concern for the Chargers offense with quarterback Phillip Rivers unlikely to play and LaDanian Tomlinson most likely to play with an injury. Billy Volek and Michael Turner got the job done last week but you wouldn’t want to be on them in Foxboro at this time of year. Especially with Norv Turner on the sideline. The minus appears to be the bet in this one.

Green Bay -7 (v New York Giants) at 1.91 Sportingbet - 3 Units

The fact that the Packers are only giving up a touchdown in this NFC Championship clash against the New York Giants merely confirms the belief that the team from Green Bay continue to be underrated by oddsmakers. To my eye (and this eye is not blinded by any adoration of Brett Favre), the only way the Giants can remain competitive in this is if Brett Favre stinks it up and on current form, he won’t be stinking it up. Turnovers are the Giants only hope. The Giants, simply, do not match-up well with the all-conquering Packers. The Packers pass the ball better than any team bar the Patriots in the NFL and they will be throwing against a secondary that has been ravaged by injury and hardly looked sensational against the Cowboys, where Romo and his receivers failed to take advantage through a series of overthrown passes and critical dropped passes. Favre and the Packer corps won’t make so many errors as Favre is a significantly smarter and more accurate thrower than Romo and the hands of Jennings, Driver, Jones and Lee are much safer than those of Crayton and Owens. Due to the Giants lack of backfield speed, they will need to play a zone defense as they simply cannot keep up man-to-man with the speedy Packers offense. This will give Favre plenty underneath, which he will gladly take, particularly in the freezing conditions expected at Lambeau this week. The weak Giants secondary will also ensure the Giants cannot play to their strength, which is the pass rush. The Giants have a lethal front four and linebacking set but they will not be able to blitz as often as they would like as they will have to drop back into coverage. Combined with the quick ball release of Brett Favre, Strahan and company could be in trouble preventing the Packers moving the ball. On the other side of the coin, it is hard to see how the Giants will score. Manning in the snow is a major query while the Packers have been sensational stopping the run. The Packers win this and they win it well. Another interesting stat: Brett Favre is 41-5 when the temperature is below 34 degrees Fahrenheit. The temperature is forecast as being in the low teens this weekend. Give the points and collect the cash.

NFL Selections: Divisional Playoff Weekend

Best Bet: Dallas -7

Green Bay -7.5 (v Seattle) at 1.91 Centrebet - 1 Unit

There has been no more exciting game all season. The Legend, Brett Favre, leading a hotshot young Packers outfit onto Lambeau Field in January. Even the most romantic of football writers could not have scripted something as magical. Favre has been outstanding all season, belying age and defying critics who have suggested his best days are long gone. He has taken the most storied franchise in the National Football League back to the glory of playoff football and the dream is far from over as the Pack should dispose of Seattle this weekend. The Packers have been nearly unbeatable in Wisconsin this season while Seattle has been ordinary at best on the road. The Packers have lost only once at home, their last four Lambeau victories being by two touchdowns plus. Seattle, conversely, has lost to both Atlanta and Carolina when leaving the coziness of the Pacific North West. Where the Packers have been the punter’s pals at home, the Hawks have been the source of much cussing when playing on the road. The pressure of playoff football at Lambeau will be too much for Seattle. And so will the Green Bay passing game. Green Bay have been scoring with relative ease this season and should have no problem moving the ball against the 19th best passing defense in the NFL. With Ryan Grant creating a dual threat at tailback, Favre should be able to pick apart Seattle. Seattle will struggle to counter with a non-existent running game and a quarterback who really struggled against Washington where he had thrown the game away before being saved by his defense. Green Bay has a far more formidable defense and will place much greater pressure on Hasselbeck. The Packers are flying and should cover the 7 ½.

New England -12.5 (v Jacksonville)     - No Bet

The Patriots, on their quest for undefeated total supremacy, will win this game. The Jags have come through the season playing well but it takes a great team to defeat Brady, Bellichick and the Patriots in January and the 2007 Jaguars are not a great team. The Patriots won’t be pulling any surprises. NFL MVP Tom Brady will throw the ball and try and pick up apart a Jags defense that has been ravaged by injury to key personnel. He will most likely be successful. The Pats will then try and play bruising defense, hoping to force Garrard to throw. He showed last week against the Steelers that he is not as good a passer as his numbers suggest and when put under the hammer, he can turn the ball over. The Pats will go to 17-0 however the line of 12 ½ looks about right. No bet.

San Diego +9 (at Indianapolis) - No Bet

If a gun was held to my head and I was forced to make a wager in this game (a strange scenario, admittedly), I would take the Chargers with the points. But, thanks to the grace of God, I am not in such a situation as I would not like to have my gotten gains on Phillip Rivers playing in a dome with a side coached by Norv Turner against a seasoned playoff team. That side could be without their best receiver in Antonio Gates and they are coming off a bruising encounter with a plucky Titans outfit. Having said that, the 9 points does appear just a touch large and it would be a ballsy and somewhat silly act to bet heavily on the Colts. Indianapolis has not been particularly adept at covering this season with bookmakers continuing to price them on their Super Bowl winning form. Manning has been good but he has had fewer options with Harrison out hurt and much of his offensive line hurt. They have not covered against a decent team since beating the spread against New England in the first week of November and have not played with their usual dominance over the latter part of the year. This looks like a classic no bet game.

Dallas -7 (v New York Giants) at 1.85 Centrebet - 2 Units - (-7 ½ to -8 ½ can be bet for 1 ½ Units)

I remain unconvinced about Eli Manning and the Giants. The scoreboard tells us they beat Tampa Bay Bucs but the reality of the situation was Jeff Garcia, Jon Gruden and the over-hammering of conservatism beat the Bucs and the Giants merely were in the right place at the right time to pick up the accolades. They will receive no such cake this weekend. The Cowboys will be fired up to smack their divisional rivals right in the ear hole, just as they have already done twice this season. This game is essentially in the hands of Tony Romo. If Romo can keep his game together and avoid costly turnovers, the Cowboys will run away with this. Tight end Jason Whitten will be a key factor for Romo. With an established passing game, the Cowboys will then loosen up the middle for Marion Barber, who can be particularly dangerous against tiring defenses. There seems to be little doubt that the Cowboys can run up a score. Whether the Giants can match them is the question and it appears doubtful that Eli Manning can throw three plus touchdowns without turning the ball over. For all the talk of the Cowboys high powered offense, the Cowboys defense has been stoic this season, ranking 9th in the NFL. They should put Manning under too much pressure. I like the Cowboys here, particularly only giving seven points. The only concern is the injury to T.O though he is expected to play at this stage.

NFL Selections: Wild Card Weekend

Best Bet: Pittsburgh +2 ½

Seattle -3 (v Washington) (-3.0 @ 1.826 Pinnacle Sports) - 1 Unit

This is the hardest match-up of the weekend to figure out and thus, will be our smallest wager. The out-of-form Seattle, who won the weakest division in the NFL, host the Washington Redskins, a team united and on a mission since the tragic slaying of ‘Skin Sean Taylor. Seattle have one of the best home records in the NFL (7-1) while Washington, who are only fair on the road, have won four straight and take into the playoffs one of the most powerful runs of momentum across the board. The two teams are coached by the two men who are number one and two on the list of most wins for active coaches. This will be close and the rain and wind expected only reaffirms this. This would be a flip of the coin match-up if played on a neutral venue and hence, the ‘Hawks giving the three. Where Seattle does have a slight edge is at quarterback. Matt Hasselbeck is a clearly superior quarterback to Todd Collins, who hadn’t started an NFL game since 1997 before leading Washington to four consecutive wins. In playoff football, you can do worse than betting the strongest quarterback The turnover differentials of the two franchises would also be of concern to Washington, Seattle ranking 5th with +10 and Washington ranking 21st with -5. Seattle, despite their inconsistent form, should be good enough at home to win this. There is no bet at 3 ½.

Pittsburgh +2 ½ (v Jacksonville) (+2.5 @ 2.03 Pinnacle Sports) - 2 Units

Pittsburgh has limped through the final month of the regular season but nevertheless the men of Steel City should not be outsiders against the Jags at Heinz Field. When these two outfits met only three weeks back, the Steelers were three point favourites. Jacksonville won on that occasion but Pittsburgh were not embarrassed and despite losing star back Willie Parker, they have been disregarded just a little too much by oddsmakers. The Steelers still have a Super Bowl winner who has just come off his best regular season under center, they stifle both the run and pass with the number one defense in the league and replacement rusher Najeh Davenport looks more than capable. Jack Del Rio has the Jags playing a similar possession-oriented game. It is run first for Jacksonville with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew sure to get plenty of carries. The surprise for the Jags this season has been quarterback David Garrard and how efficient he has been, throwing only three picks all year. I do, however, remain unconvinced by the notion he is a top professional quarterback. Jake Plummer had a great regular season a few years back and that ended fairly badly come playoff time. Compounded by the fact the Jags have no receivers, this could get entirely messy. While both teams play a similar style, the wintry conditions will favour the Steelers heavily with the Jags far less accustomed to such wildness. The 2 ½ points look good. An interesting fact: no team has ever beaten the Steelers twice in a season in Pittsburgh.

Tampa Bay -2 ½ (v NY Giants) (-2.5 @ 1.87 Centrebet) - 1 ½ Units

This will be the end of the line for one team and the final yelp of the other. One will lose and the other will get the honour of surviving another week before being whipped without mercy. The team that will lose will be the New York Giants and the team who will get whipped next week, most likely by Dallas, will be the Bucs. It is hard to see the Giants winning this. They are significantly overmatched in the coaching stakes and in recent times, the Bucs quarterback Jeff Garcia has proved a bogey for the New York Football Giants, knocking them out of the playoffs twice in the last six years. The Giants strength is their running game but that will be little help in Tampa against the second best defense in the NFL. This will force the game into Eli Manning’s hands and only someone beset by self-loathing would want their money on Eli Manning in January. Manning will fumble and throw picks and the Bucs will grind their way to victory. Playoff games are won and lost on turnovers. The Bucs rank 4th in the NFL with a plus 15 turnover differential while the Giants are a horrid 26th with a minus 9 disparity. The Bucs will play conservatively and get this one.

Tennessee +9 ½ (v San Diego) (+9.5 @ 2.0 Pinnacle Sports) - 1 ½ Units

Everybody wants to tip the Chargers. They are the hot team in the NFL the pundits claim. I remain unconvinced and think Tennessee is a legitimate hope of upsetting the Chargers. San Diego have won six on the trot but aside from the overtime win against the Titans, the Chargers have merely beat up on pathetic teams when their season was over. They have proven failure Norv Turner calling the plays and the uninspiring Phillip Rivers throwing the pigskin. That looks a ready made combination for disaster. There is no doubt they will try to hide these inadequacies by giving the ball to LT but LT may struggle against the 5th best run defense in the NFL, led by Albert Haynesworth. If the Titans can turn this into a defensive struggle, they can not only cover but win. Jeff Fisher will want the Titans to pound the ball into the Chargers middling defense and then force Rivers to throw and make mistakes. That is a game plan that will work. If the Titans fall behind, however, they are screwed. Vince Young is questionable but even if he does take part, he has struggled to make plays in the air and back-up Kerry Collins is only serviceable. I think the Titans will be ready to play, particularly after the spiteful encounter between these two in week fourteen, and the 9 ½ points should be good.

NFL Selections: Week 16

Week 16 Best Bet: Cleveland -3

Cleveland -3 (at Cincinnati) @2.11 Pinnacle Sports - 2 Units

Here is my opening pitch for the Browns this week: the Bengals lost to a Niners team led by a third-string quarterback that nobody, even the die-hards around North Beach, have ever heard of. The Bengals are a joke and not a very amusing one. This hapless bunch of fools have stumbled their way to five wins this season but rest assured, they are going down, not up. They have failed to cover in six of their last eight and embarrassed Queen City with pathetic performance after pathetic performance. Cleveland, conversely, has been baying for the Browns with pride and adulation. Bettors have been reacting in a most similar matter. The Browns have won seven of their last nine and have covered in eight of those games. The Browns play smart football and aside from a hiccup against the Cards a few weeks back, Derek Anderson has been playing great football. The Browns were courageous on the weekend, winning an ice bowl against Buffalo 8-0. The Browns should cover the three against Cincy. At least you know you will be on the team trying.

Philadelphia +3 (at New Orleans) @2.12 Pinnacle Sports - 1 ½ Units

Pundits and punters want to talk up New Orleans, proclaiming the Saints are back and can all of a sudden play football again. I remain unconvinced. Cheap wins over Carolina, Atlanta and Arizona hardly make a quality football team. The Saints still have no idea how to use Reggie Bush and with the karma of 2006 long gone, they have struggled to move the sticks and stop teams from doing same. Philly, on face value, have been stuttering along in a similar manner this season. But deeper analysis reveals two things. The Eagles suck at home and are more than competitive on the road. Since their bye, the Eagles have gone 4-1 on the road (losing only a thriller to New England) and covered in all five. Those five games were against the Cowboys, Redskins, Vikings, Jets and Pats. With Brian Westbrook playing so well, the Eagles can win and win big against a Saints team you just cannot trust.

Tampa Bay -6 (at San Francisco) @1.98 Pinnacle Sports  - 1 Unit

Forget last week. The Niners are still awful and an embarrassment to us all. The Bengals lost that game rather than the Niners winning it. And it doesn’t matter that this game is being played at Monster Park. The Bucs have been good on the road this season, particularly against bad teams. The key for Tampa Bay will be Ernest Graham and his versatility. A multi-dimensional running back could wreak all kinds of havoc with the Niners defense. The Bucs are a good bet giving only seven. Be very wary of the seven-and-a-half however.

NFL Selections: Week 15

Week 15 Best Bet: Seattle -7

Seattle -7 @ 1.91 (at Carolina) Portlandbet - 2 Units

The Seattle Seahawks have finally struck some form with Matt Hasselbeck hitting a rhythm and the defense finally making plays. Last week that pass defense made five picks and sacked Kurt Warner five times in what looked to be a defining game for a Hawks team who has struggled for an identity and consistency all season. The form of Matt Hasselbeck will also give Seattle fans great heart as he is finally starting to play to his abilities. Seattle has now covered in five consecutive games and look a reliable betting proposition. Carolina, on the other hand, is an abortion of a team with Rip Van Winkle under center and not an ounce of commitment either with the ball or on defense. They have lost six of their last seven (beating only the hapless Niners) and in those six losses; they managed to score more than seven points only twice. These are two teams headed in very different directions. Seattle should win and win by plenty.

Baltimore -3 ½ @2.0 (at Miami) Pinnacle Sports - 1 ½ Units

It is somewhat amusing to see the Miami Dolphins go winless in the season when the fabled undefeated ’72 Dolphins are about to be matched by the Patriots. The arrogance of that ’72 team is particularly irritating and to see their smugness wiped while the ’07 version goes without a win is very enjoyable. Not that all this is particularly relevant. Other than the fact we can be sure that the Dolphins are headed to another inglorious defeat. They were actually embarrassing against Buffalo, looking like a bunch of high school kids led by a guy with the mental capacity of a crazed cow. The Ravens are no superstars but they should have enough to cover only 3 ½ points. Troy Smith will most likely get the start this week and that is a bonus as he has potential. It is a rarity that the Ravens are a good bet but this week, they look super.

NFL Selections: Week 14

Week 14 Best Bet: Kansas City +6.5

Kansas City +6 ½ @1.971 (at Denver) Pinnacle Sports - 1 ½ units

Once upon a time, not all that many years ago, the Broncos and the Chiefs was one of the great division rivalries in the NFL. Not these days. Two teams used to success are struggling in 2007 with the Broncos limping to a 5-7 record and the Chiefs struggling to 4-8. The Broncos have been inconsistent while the Chiefs have not offered a lot. Having said that, this match-up looks like a good betting opportunity with bookmakers prepared to give 6 ½ points to the Chiefs. KC have been very good on the road this season, covering their last four times when getting away from Arrowhead (where the Chiefs have been abysmal). Adding to the confidence is Denver’s appalling home record, having gone 2-10 in their last twelve. The Chiefs will have Damon Huard back under centre and while that may inhibit their long-term future, Huard provides the Chiefs with a greater chance of victory at present. Take the points in this AFC West clash.

Minnesota -8 @1.91 (at San Francisco) Centrebet - 1 ½ units

This game, at first occurrence, seems like an obvious trap game. The Vikings, a middling team, starting big favourites on the road with Tavaris Jackson hurling the ball and calling the shots does not seem like an attractive proposition at first. Two things going for the bet though, are these: Adrian Peterson and the San Francisco 49ers. Peterson has been electric this year and will be named the top rookie of the league. He continues to rack up big numbers and amaze with his moves. He will be running against a Niners defense who ranks 26th in the NFL against the run. I have to believe Brad Childress is intelligent enough to just run all day. He has tended to protect Jackson on the road in recent times and that is reaping dividends. The Vikes should win this and win big.

Cleveland -3 @1.91 (at New York Jets) Sportingbet - 1 unit

The Browns were most unlucky not to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat last week when Kellen Winslow scored the game winning touchdown on a force-out but was denied by some incompetent officiating. The Browns got off to a bad start but were the better team for much of the game. Prior to that, they had covered in their previous six. The Browns are a good team and should cut through the Jets defense in what is sure to be high scoring affair. Giving only three, the Browns are a sound bet. A touchdown would probably be a more accurate line.

Buffalo -7 @ 1.962 (v Miami Dolphins) Pinnacle Sports - 1 Unit

The Bills have owned the Dolphins in recent years, winning six of the last seven contests straight up between the two teams and covering in six also with the remaining game being a push. And throughout most of that run the Bills have hardly been a team full of superstars. Buffalo are playing well this season and can absolutely hammer the hapless Dolphins. Take the Bills.

NFL Selections: Week 13

Week 13 Best Bet: Cleveland ML

Cleveland @ 2.05 (at Arizona) Sportingbet - 2 Units

The all-conquering Cleveland Browns are somehow slight outsiders against the Arizona Cardinals and can be bet heavily. The Browns have been hot this year, accumulating a 7-4 record and, with a relatively good run home, appear to be marching to the playoffs in one of the toughest divisions in professional football. They have covered in their last six contests, winning on the back of an offense that has scored at least 27 points over that period. The Arizona Cardinals, conversely, have been playing inconsistent football, failing to beat some bad teams. Last week the Cards allowed the hapless San Francisco 49ers to score 37 points and win. The Cards do not have a stellar home record and the Browns have been good on the road. Derek Anderson will throw it all day and should take us to victory on his rocket arm.

Green Bay +7 @2.0 (at Dallas) Pinnacle Sports - 1.5 Units

I have waxed lyrical about Brett Favre and the Packers all season and they continue to do us right. The Pack are 10-1 after a sturdy Thanksgiving Day victory over divisional rivals Detroit. Coach Mike McCarthy deserves to be elevated to the plane just below Vince Lombardi in Packers lore for the job he has done in turning this team around. His work with Favre, in particular, has been the underlying reason Green Bay are on their way to an NFC Championship game (of which this match-up is expected to be a preview). Favre is now more calculated in his risk management and combined with the bullet arm he has always had, he is as dangerous a proposition as there is in the NFC. The Packers get their stiffest test this Friday against the ‘Boys. Tony Romo, often compared to Favre, has led the Cowboys in superb fashion and with a double threat in the backfield and top class receivers out wide, the team from Dallas have put up some scores. This could be a shootout and you never underestimate Favre in that situation. The seven points are too much so snaffle them up and once again cheer on the Pack.

Buffalo Bills +5 ½ @1.98 (at Washington) Pinnacle Sports - 1 Unit

The Washington Redskins suffered tragedy of the highest order this week when safety Sean Taylor died after being shot by an intruder in his own home. The Redskins, rightfully, will be cut up by such a devastating and unnecessary incident. As callous as this sounds (and I surely don’t mean it to), the incident will no doubt severely impact on the ‘Skins preparation for their game against the Bills and this should be enough to see them come undone. The Bills were going well until they ran into New England, which certainly hurt them against the Jags last weekend. The Bills can bounce back in this tragedy-tinged contest. If both Lynch and Thomas do not play (both questionable), it is best to halve the stake.

NFL Selections: Week 12

Week 12 Best Bet: Washington +3

Washington +3 (at Tampa Bay) @2.13 Pinnacle Sports - 1.5 Units

The Skins looked good at Dallas last week and look value against a Bucs team who got away with a big win over the eyesore that is the Atlanta Falcons. Jason Campbell is really improving as a quarterback and with a quality receiving corps (Moss, Randle El and Cooley) and a quality running game, he is developing into a quality game manager. The Skins are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine against Tampa Bay and covered the big spread against the ‘boys last week. Expect Washington to push a Tampa Bay team who will face their stiffest test in over a month. The three points look a bonus here.

Green Bay -3 ½ (at Detroit) @2.13 Pinnacle Sports - 1.5 Units

The Green Bay Packers continue to be underrated this season despite going 9-1 for the first time since the days of Lombardi. The Packers are on the march to playing on tha fro-o-zen tuunnnddra of Lambeau Field in January with a 38 year old gunslinger at the helm attempting to relive glories of days gone by. The Packers are dominating the NFC this season purely because Brett Favre is playing like the champion he is. The Pack have no running and very few stars but thanks to Favre’s arm and a stout defense, they are playing like an elite team. The Lions, on the other hands, are an overrated outfit who can make the occasional play but cannot win consistently. The biggest concern for the Lions is there poor pass defense, which Favre will exploit like he did against the Vikings only weeks ago. The Packers are 8-1-1 against the spread in the last ten weeks and should improve upon that record on Thanksgiving.

Cleveland -3 ½ (v Houston) @2.09 Pinnacle Sports - 1.5 Units

The Browns are another underrated team who are being priced on lack of name recognition and expected failure rather than their on-field performances. The Browns have covered in their last five games including four at the minus. Browns QB Derek Anderson has developed a great rapport with Braylon Edwards, who in turn has become one of the elite receivers in the NFL. They are playing flashy and clever football and will take great heart from their overtime win against Baltimore. The Browns take on a Houston team who were flattered by an ordinary Saints last week. The Browns could run away with this.

NFL Selections: Week 11

Week 11 Best Bet: Tampa Bay -3

Tampa Bay -3 (at Atlanta) @1.88 Betstar - 1.5 Units
Under 35.5 (Tampa Bay/Atlanta) @2.0 Pinnacle Sports - 1.5 Units

As hard as it is to believe, the Bucs-Falcons game is the big betting affair of the week. Though nobody will want to watch what should be a real trench warfare battle, the opportunity for profit is there. The Bucs are probably the best team in the NFC South and while that is saying very little, it will mean that Jon Gruden will be steeling them for playoff football. Jeff Garcia continues to be serviceable in a team that is playing too their strengths. The Falcons, meanwhile, have eked out wins against San Fran and Carolina and have failed to impress in either encounter. The Bucs look to have just a little too much class for the Falcons and will grind out a tough victory. In regards the total, both teams are low-scorers with solid-enough defense and it would be a surprise to see this go over.

New Orleans +1.5 (at Houston) @1.91 Centrebet - 1 Unit

The Houston Texans are an absolute rabble. They have failed to cover in five of their last six and have allowed teams to put 25 plus points on them in four of those affairs. They have shown absolutely nothing. They host the Saints who, admittedly, are a team I do not like. But they are a much better team than the Texans. The high powered offense of Drew Brees, Reggie Bush and Marques Colston could wreak all kinds of havoc on the Houston secondary. The Saints can put on a score. The Texans can give up a score. With the Saints okay on the road this year, take the point and wait for the Saints to go marching in.

Oakland +5.5 (at Minnesota) @1.95 Sportingbet - 1 Unit

The Vikings without stud rookie tailback Adrian Peterson are like that old show Hey Dad when the dad left. It is weird and strange and it just doesn’t work. The Vikes will now have to rely on whichever quarterback they decide and whoever that may be, it will be dismal. The Raiders have been slowly improving this season and very nearly rolled the Bears last week. The points should be good here.  

Week 10 Best Bet: Dallas -1

Dallas -1 (at New York Giants) @1.91 Sportingbet - 2 Units

The Cowboys are the standout team in the NFC this season and their high powered offense should prove too much for the inconsistent and slightly overrated Giants. Tony Romo has been hot recently, absolutely destroying the Philadelphia Eagles with deep passes and quick slants to his speedy wideouts. The perfect compliment to this was the highly effective two-pronged running attack of Julius Jones and Marion Barber. Such multi-dimensional play is always difficult to contain and will be so for the Giants, whose numbers have made their defense look better than it really is. The Giants, simply, have beaten up on bad teams. In the last month, they have beaten the Dolphins, Jets, Falcons and Niners. All awful teams. Eli Manning is still a worry and their effort against the Dolphins suggests all is not right in New York. Give up the small chalk and collect.

Cleveland +10 (at Pittsburgh) @1.909 Pinnacle Sports - 1 Unit

As hard as it is to believe, the Browns are actually okay this season and will take it to the Steelers in this traditional AFC North battle. The Browns, with Derek Anderson at QB, have completely changed their style, operating with a high profile offense that includes future Pro Bowler Braylon Edwards and the classy Kellen Winslow. They can rack up big scores. A great sign for the Browns was their tremendous overtime win against Seattle last weekend. Their defense late was superb. They meet a hot Steelers side coming off a big win. But the win was on Monday Night against a divisional foe, which will no doubt have an effect on the Steelers preparation for this week. This one should be very close. Take the ten points and hope for a traditional AFC North clash.

NFL Selections: Week 9

Week 9 Best Bet: Green Bay +2

Green Bay +2 (at Kansas City) @1.91 Centrebet - 2 Units

I could not be anymore high on the Packers right now and in particular Brett Favre. The time honoured gunslinger, one of the finest quarterbacks to ever grace an NFL field, showed that age will not weary him nor the years condemn on Monday night when he led the Packers to one of their finest ever victories. Favre went deep on the first play of OT and connected with Greg Jennings against one of the finest corners in the game in Dre Bly for the game winning 82 yard TD. The Packers have shown they have it with the ball in the air as well as on the defensive side of the ball, where they are playing remarkably. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have beaten nobody bar San Diego. They will be vulnerable deep and they will struggle to move the ball. I cannot believe the Chiefs have gone up favourites here.

Arizona +3 ½ (at Tampa Bay) @1.943 Pinnacle Sports - 1.5 Units

The Cards have, quite surprisingly, turned themselves into one of the best betting teams in the NFL, going 5-2 against the spread so far. They come into this clash against Tampa Bay off a bye, giving them two weeks to prepare. With Kurt Warner fit and in charge, the Cards look good this week against a team with no run. Garcia is starting to look vulnerable and it will only get worse for him with absolutely no running game. Take the points.

Cincinnati (at Buffalo) @ 1.926 Pinnacle Sports - 1 Unit

The Bengals have been an embarrassment to Queen City this year. They have underachieved and let down Bengal Nation constantly. But they do have talent and they should not be getting points off Buffalo. The Bills have been playing capably but they have not met any high powered offenses. They have won defensive struggles and two of their three wins were against the Jets. This will not be a defensive struggle and I don’t think Buffalo have the points in them to be effective in this match-up. The Bengals should give something to their fan base this week.

Jacksonville +3 ½ (at New Orleans) @1.9 Expekt - 1 Unit

The Saints take the title of most over-hyped team in October. Every pundit wants to tell you that the Saints are back, that they are playing like they did in 2006. Rubbish. They have beaten an appalling San Fran and an even worse Atlanta, whom they snuck home against. Their win against Seattle was also more a result of the Hawks ineptitude rather than the Saints playing well. This week they will play with an injured Reggie Bush in the backfield. They meet the hard hitting Jags, who played to their strengths against Tampa last weekend. Take the points and expect Jacksonville to run all day at New Orleans.

NFL Selections: Week 8

Week 8 Best Bet: Jacksonville +4

Jacksonville +4 at Tampa Bay @1.91 Sportingbet - 1.5 Units

This is a battle between two Florida teams decimated by key injuries and it is wise to take the points. The Jags lost QB David Garrard to injury in Monday Night Football and will be forced to play Quinn Gray under centre, who struggled when called upon last week. Saying that, this switch will not radically transform the Jags who are a “run-first, win it with their defense” team. The Jags still have tailbacks Jones-Drew, who continues to improve, and Fred Taylor, who still has a lot to offer despite his advancing years. They also have a stout defense who should have no problems matching the Bucs one dimensional offense. Tampa Bay have had their running corps banged up all year and now rely purely on the throwing game of the ageing Jeff Garcia. The Jags have won their last five against the Bucs. Take the points.

Buffalo +3 at New York Jets @1.893 Pinnacle Sports - 1 Unit

The Bills have looked reasonably competent since pulling the trigger on Trent Edwards. Halfback Marshawn Lynch is their best back since Thurman Thomas and gives the franchise hope while the defense has been remarkably effective. They have won two of their last three (including a win over the Jets in Buffalo) with the only loss coming on MNF to Dallas in the dying seconds. The Bills look a team on the way up. The Jets, on the other hand, are awful. They are in the midst of a quarterback battle and those never end well for a team this far into a season. They blew a game against the struggling Bengals last week and don’t really seem to know where they are headed. Take the points with the Bills.

NFL Selections: Week 7

Week 7 Best Bet: New England -16.5

New England -16 ½ at Miami @1.97 Pinnacle Sports - 3 Units

This is one of the greatest mismatches I have ever seen. The almighty New England Patriots are playing football as well as any team has ever played the game, winning with ease and decimating opponents along the way. They square up with the Miami Dolphins, a team who is winless, directionless and playing with no offensive power. The quarterback match-up says it all: Tom Brady against Cleo Lemon. The Patriots have that nastiness about them now and combined with their unparalleled ability to score points, they should completely gut the Dolphins. The Pats could win by fifty and I wouldn’t be surprised. Smash the Pats at the big minus…it isn’t nearly big enough.

Pittsburgh -3 ½ at Denver @1.926 Pinnacle Sports - 2 Units

The Steelers look to be one of the elite teams of the NFL in 2007 while the Broncos have been terribly overrated. There is no doubt the Broncos are still reeling from the off-field deaths of two players in the off season and can be safely written off for the rest of the season. That is the only explanation for their appalling play, exemplified by their appalling 41-3 home defeat to San Diego in their last game before the bye. The Steelers, on the other hand, are playing hot. Particularly impressive has been the sturdiness of an injury ravaged defense. Denver are playing with low morale and the Steelers will be looking to solidify their claims for inclusion among the NFL elite. A road blowout is expected.

Tampa Bay + 2 ½ at Detroit @1.96 Centrebet - 1 Unit

The Bucs may actually be half decent this year and have looked good even without a running game. That will change this week, with the acquisition of veteran tailback Michael Bennett from Kansas City. It is a very good pick-up for a team who has lost Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman and will improve a team who keeps fighting and keeps winning. Jeff Garcia is doing a super job at QB and the defence is playing solid, as expected. With the Lions, you just ask to get whipped if you support them. They play with no consistency. Take the points for a little play.

Week 6 Best Bet: Tennessee +3

Tennessee +3 at Tampa Bay @1.847 Pinnacle Sports - 2 Units

The Titans are one of the top underdog bets in the NFL and can be bet with confidence against the Bucs. The Titans, with Vince Young at the helm, are a dangerous team who only need some consistency in the run game to be pushed into the top quarter of NFL teams. The Titans have covered their last five games as a road underdog and thirteen of their last sixteen as an outsider. They were solid against the Falcons last week and were impressive in tearing apart the Saints two weeks back. They meet a Bucs side who now has no run with Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman down. The Bucs are an awful proposition with no run. The Titans and the points look good.

St.Louis +10 at Baltimore @1.8 Sportingbet - 2 Units

The Rams are not a good side this season. They are a team long removed from The Greatest Show on Turf days, playing injured and loose. St. Louis are missing their starting quarterback, most of their offensive line including Pro Bowler Orlando Pace and star running back Steven Jackson. They have failed to cover the spread four of five times this season and they are not particularly strong at home. But they are the bet of the week. Baltimore are still solid defensively this season but are struggling to move the ball (almost as much as the Rams) and score points. They are an overrated proposition at the moment and have failed to cover the points every time this season. Against an injury depleted 49ers last week, they were only saved by a final drive missed field goal by Joe Nedney. This will be a horrible game. Possibly 2-0. Take the points, they should be more than enough.

New York Jets +3 v Philadelphia @2.20 Pinnacle Sports - 1 Unit

The Jets are a well coached team and well coached teams have a tendency to respond well to defeat. That is doubly true after a bye. Eric Mangini would have hammered his team into shape over the last two weeks and the Jets will be firing in an attempt to avenge their loss to the Bills and keep alive playoff aspirations. They meet a Philly side who look a shadow of their former selves and nothing like the team pundits expected. McNabb is nearly completely immobile, the defence is inconsistent and the loss of Brian Westbrook has left the entire offense completely unproductive. This is a nice match-up for the Jets who go very well at home when not playing elite teams.

Green Bay -3 v Washington @ 1.87 Centrebet - 1 Unit

The Pack should be 5-0. They had the Bears on the sword and failed to drive it through. They won’t make the same mistake against the Skins. On what is expected to be the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field with Brett Favre throwing them to victory. It is just like old times, as they say. The Packers have been brilliant this season and with the running game starting to develop, they are a major threat to pile on the points. They would have put close to 30 on the vaunted Bears defense if it wasn’t for a couple of costly fumbles. Give away the three here.

Week 5 Best Bet: Seattle +6

Seattle (+6) at Pittsburgh @2.0 Pinnacle Sports - 1 Unit

Both Seattle and Pittsburgh have started the season well with one notable exception: both have lost to the dysfunctional Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks lost a game they should have won with a terrible botched handoff that not only ruined the game winning field goal drive for the Hawks but allowed the Cards to drive for the shot, which was, of course, good. Last week, Pittsburgh were shocked by former coordinator Ken Whisenhunt. The Cardinals got away with the game as big dogs, winning 21-14. This week the Hawks go to Pittsburgh and the six points look a good bet. Hasselbeck has been serviceable, as has Alexander, but the real strength looks to be the defense. Pittsburgh, while also going well, are having problems with Willie Parker and the run, which will force them to throw and allow Seattle to play to their strengths. This game should be tight and the points will be good.

Dallas (-10) at Buffalo @1.926 Pinnacle Sports - 1 Unit

The Cowboys are, without doubt, the best team in the NFC this season and look to be headed to at least the championship game. And on the way there will be plenty of entertainment with Tony Romo, in the course of being compared to Brett Favre, throwing deep and coming up trumps. The Cowboys look like the Cowboys of old with new coach Wade Phillips looking a good fit. This week they travel to Buffalo for Monday Night Football to take on the hapless Bills. The Bills broke through at the weekend but that was only a close win against the underachieving and QB-less Jets. The Bills, in the first three weeks, have looked awful defensively and are struggling to move the ball. The Cowboys tend to show up for big games these days while the Bills probably prefer the shadows of anonymity while they are playing so poorly. This one could be a blowout.

Detroit (+3.5) at Washington @2.0 Pinnacle Sports - 0.5 Units

The Lions look a small play here as it seems wise to bet against the ‘Skins whenever they are favoured this season. Washington were shocked in the second half by the Giants prior to the bye and will be mentally scarred by the game they let slip away. That one went south because of a poor attitude and the failure of Clinton Portis to come through when needed. The team has had nearly two weeks to stew on that. Detroit, on the other hand, will take great heart after their big last quarter comeback against the Bears last weekend. Jon Kitna led a late fightback and the Lions slayed one of their most hated rivals as well as the demons of their thumping at the hands of Philly. This is only a small play but seemingly a sound one.

Week 4 Best Bet: Green Bay -1

Best Bet: Green Bay -1

Green Bay -1 @ Minnesota @1.87 Pinnacle Sports - 2.5 Units

Green Bay have been hot this season, going 3-0 and defeating three playoff teams from last season. Reality appeared to be beckoning last weekend when The Pack hosted San Diego but Brett Favre just out-threw and out-hustled the feared Chargers defense with a vintage display. This week the Packers take on Minnesota, a team not even in the same hemisphere as the three franchises beaten by Green Bay this season. The Vikings are horrible this year. They have no quarterback, no offense and no common sense. The Packers beat the Vikings twice last season, are a better team this season and they have Brett Favre. Giving away only a point is a steal.

New England -7 @ Cincinnati @1.943 Pinnacle Sports - 1.5 Units

The Patriots are the favourites to win it all and deservedly so. They looked brilliant on paper preseason and if anything, have only increased expectations after three sizzling performances. Tom Brady and Randy Moss look like Young and Rice in their heyday while the Pats defence ranks number one in the league and by quite a margin. They come up against a team that allowed the Cleveland Browns to put 51 points only two Sunday’s back. The Bengals offense can score but their defense resembles an old sieve. Smack the Pats giving away 7. Take the bet down to one unit if you can only get 7 ½.

Oakland +4.5 @ Miami @1.971 Pinnacle Sports - 0.5 Units

A small bet on the Raiders at the plus against the Dolphins seems appropriate. The Raiders are 1-2 and actually look better than the abortion predicted in the offseason. They are still a long way from being good but that is not all that relevant when you take on the Miami Dolphins. Daunte Culpepper is at QB now and though he lacks mobility, he is probably their best option right now and the revenge factor must be considered here as the Dolphins cut him when they signed Trent Green. The points here look a sound bet.

Week 3 Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts -6

Indianapolis (-6) @ Houston @1.95 Sportingbet - 1.5 Units

The Colts were a little disappointing against the Titans last week but that was as much to do with the stout Titans defense as it was with any serious lapse of the Colts fabled offense. They won’t run into such a problem this week against the Texans, who allowed 21 points against Jake Delhomme and the Panthers. Houston have done well in winning their first two but scoring over the incompetent Chiefs and the bumbling Panthers hardly push the Texans into the category of good. Peyton Manning should pick apart the Texans defense in what should be a shootout. The best hope for the Texans is Ahman Green and his run but he may have lost a step this season. The Colts should win this by over a touchdown.

San Diego (-4.5) @ Green Bay @1.91 Centrebet - 1 Unit

The Chargers have been very ordinary to date while the Packers have surprised everyone in winning their first two but saying that, the Chargers are the class and look a fine bet here. Watching Brett Favre has been a delight this season and to see him winning is wonderful. But that run will finish this week. The Eagles and the Giants aren’t the Chargers. LT has shown signs of his 2006 self, finally getting his feet after missing the preseason, while Phillip Rivers is better than his performance against the Pats suggest. This is a very nice bet. If you can give away only four points, double the bet.

Denver (-3) v Jacksonville @1.885 Pinnacle Sports - 1 Unit

The Broncos have had two very ordinary wins against very bad football teams (Oakland and Buffalo) while the Jags limped to a victory against Atlanta last weekend after losing to the Titans in week one. Both have really offered very little. The Broncos, however, have a much greater upside and giving away only three in a home game seems a most reasonable proposition. This will be a dour affair but a superior kicker and a quality running game should see the Broncos go to 3-0. The only concern is Jay Cutler, who provided two turnovers last week. Betting the unders (anything under 34) is also advisable.

Week 2 Best Bet: Seattle -2.5 at Arizona

Seattle (-2.5) at Arizona @1.87 Centrebet - 2 Units

The Seahawks opened up the season in impressive fashion when comfortably disposing of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Shaun Alexander ran for more than 100 yards and Matt Hasselbeck was on song. Even the unheralded receiving corps were catching consistently. The most impressive aspect, however, was the defense, that allowed only two field goals. The Cardinals, conversely, were dreadful on Monday night, going down by three points to the Niners in one of the most God-awful games in the history of the NFL. The Seahawks will win this and with some comfort.

Atlanta (+10.5) at Jacksonville @1.91 Pinnacle Sports - 1 Unit

This line is just too big. The Falcons were bad in week one, particularly on offense. QB Harrington got sacked six times and had two picks returned for touchdowns. But the Jags were not all that special either in going down in a close one, showing plenty of offensive weaknesses as well. The Jags are a better side than Atlanta but the points will be safe if Atlanta play to their strengths and run the ball all day. Lets just hope they don’t get cute.

Dallas (-3.5) at Miami @1.95 Sportingbet - 1 Unit

Tony Romo showed he has really matured over the off season with a dominant throwing display in week one against the New York Giants. He has clicked with his receivers and is really making the most of Jason Witten and Terrell Owens now. With a solid running game, Dallas will continue to put up scores. Miami just aren’t much good. They will stay in it for a while but will soon be cut up by the powerful Cowboys offense.

Week 1 Best Bet: Kansas City +3 at Houston

Kansas City (+3) at Houston: @2.02 Pinnacle Sports - 1.5 Units

Both the Chiefs and the Texans are in for a long season. The difference between the two outfits is that the Chiefs have some definite strengths while the Texans look mediocre across the board. The focal point for KC, and it always will be while Herm Edwards is calling the shots, will be the run and with Larry Johnson as the main guy and Michael Bennett on the pine, that is not a bad thing. Johnson is an elite runner and can run holes through a defense that is brittle at best. The Chiefs are a dour team but this will be a dour battle and the Chiefs have the tools to beat the hapless Texans.

San Francisco (-3) v Arizona: @1.877 Pinnacle Sports - 1.5 Units

This is the year the Niners return to the realms of respectability. Alex Smith has a full season under his belt, Frank Gore should naturally improve on his blistering 2006 and the defense has improved markedly with the acquisition of shutdown corner Nate Clements. They will go very close to winning the NFC West. They have as good a match-up as they could hope for in week one, coming up against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards have a good second year quarterback but with a new coaching staff, a questionable line and possibly the worst defense in the NFL. The Niners should cover the three here.

Cleveland (+4.5) v Pittsburgh: @1.935 Pinnacle Sports - 1 Unit

There is nothing like a solid home dog to start the season off with. The Browns have been much maligned in recent times but they have the blocks in place to be competitive for most of the season. The AFC North is brutal and defence wins games and that is where the Browns have improved this season. They kept it close when the Steelers came to town in 2006 and with the Steelers operating under a new coaching staff and possibly being a little disjointed, the Browns should do the same again. Charlie Frye starting at QB is the best possible option for the Browns at this stage and luckily they are running with him this week.

New York Jets (+6.5) v New England @1.943 Pinnacle Sports - 1 Unit

New England will be a great side in 2007 and will be playing in the AFC Championship Game. But they started slowly last year and I anticipate we will see much the same this season. Some off-field dramas along with a new receiving corps means the Pats will be at their most vulnerable in the first month and the Jets have enough ability to make this a real hum-dinger. They made a significant upgrade in their running game with the acquisition of Thomas Jones, their inexperienced line has a year together under their belt and they are coached by a real leader. The 6 ½ for the Jets is too good to pass up.

Nick's 2007 Betting Record

To download an Excel Spreadsheet with every 2007 suggested play, click here.

Nick's 2006 Betting Record

To download an Excel Spreadsheet with every 2006 suggested play, click here.

Nick's 2005 Betting Record

To download an Excel Spreadsheet with every 2005 suggested play, click here.

To view all of Nick's 2006 predictions, click here.

To view al of Nick's 2005 predictions, click here.