Nick Tedeschi's NFL Previews and Selections 2008

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Results for the NFL 2008/09 Season. Updated Dec 23.
To download a spreadsheet with all listed bets, click here.

Weekly Suggested Bets 2008-09

NFL Selections: Playoffs Week 1

Bet of the Week: Baltimore

Arizona (+2) v Atlanta ---½ unit----

Available: Centrebet

It is quite astonishing that the Falcons are not only in the playoffs but that they accumulated an 11-5 record and didn’t win the division. It was an amazing effort from rookie coach Mike Smith and rookie quarterback Matt Ryan along with fine performances from running back Michael Turner and a tough and ugly offensive line. It has been a big year for Atlanta. They may even get a playoff win with this match-up at the falling Arizona eminently winnable. If the Falcons can keep the ball on the ground (Atlanta are second in the NFL in rushing) they could cause the Cards sixteenth-ranked run defence plenty of headaches. I do, however, think it is a big ask to back the Falcons as a road playoff favourite with so much inexperience and the prices at present certainly suggest Arizona is the bet. The key for the Cards will be Kurt Warner. His experience will be critical and if he can recapture his early season form against the 21st ranked pass defence in the league, the Cards can parlay their first divisional title since the team was in St. Louis and Gerald Ford was President. Numbers have the Cards a 5 point better team. I am not that confident but I still believe they represent value with the 2 points. Note that the Cards are 6-2 at home this season while the Falcons are 4-4 on the road.

Philadelphia (-3) at Minnesota ---1 unit---

Available: Generally

Philadelphia, despite their only fair 9-6-1 record, rank top ten in both offence and defence. Defensively, the Eagles rank fourth against the run and third against the pass. They have a top-notch defensive unit and an offensive unit that can score points. I still remain sceptical of Donovan McNabb and the coaching abilities of Andy Reid, both of whom aren’t receiving a lot of love in Philly right now, but against a schizophrenic Minnesota team they look set to record a road playoff win. Minnesota can run the ball with Peterson and Taylor but may struggle to do so against Philly’s stout defence. That will ensure the Vikes are left relying on Tavaris Jackson. Ouch. The match-up looks a good one for Philadelphia. Minnesota won’t be able to move the ball and while the Vikings are brilliant at stopping the run, they struggle against the pass. Philly rank sixth in passing offence. Philly have covered all five meetings between the two teams over the last decade and have covered in four of their last five games. Minnesota has only beaten the bookies line once over the last month. If Philly were at home this would be a 2+ unit play so bet the Eagles with a good degree of confidence.

Indianapolis (-1) at San Diego ---1 ½ units---

Available: Generally

The Colts have a great match-up against the Bolts in the first of the AFC Wildcard matches. Peyton Manning and the number five ranked passing offence in the NFL meet the Chargers, 31st in the NFL against the pass. The Colts have ridden Manning’s arm to nine straight wins and an 11-5 record. The Chargers have found form over the last month, winning four straight to finish 8-8 and claim the AFC West in the last game of the year. 2008 has been a disappointing year for the Chargers, however, with the Chargers at the top of most pre-season markets with the team expected to win 12+ games. Tomlinson has been disappointing and the defence has been a real concern. Norv Turner coaching the Bolts only enhances the confidence in betting Indianapolis. San Diego have a good recent record against Indy but that is all they have going for them. Manning will run roughshod over San Diego and it is doubtful the Chargers will have any answers.

Baltimore (-3) at Miami ---1 ½ units

Available: Generally

We will stick with Baltimore in their wildcard game with the Dolphins after a season where they went 12-3-1 against the line. They have been a punters dream this year and ensured the family ate well at Christmas. Hopefully they will kick-start 2009 in a similar fashion. In what should be a defensive battle, the Ravens have a clear edge. Baltimore rank second in the NFL in defence (3rd against the run, 2nd against the pass) and match-up well against a competent but non-explosive Miami offence. When the two teams met in week seven at Miami, Baltimore had no problems handling the Dolphins wildcat offence in a 27-13 win. Baltimore can run the ball and if Flacco just stays calm and doesn’t turn the ball over, as he hasn’t all year, Baltimore should be right. The Ravens are 5-3 on the road this season while the Dolphins are 5-3 at home. Defence has reigned supreme this year in the AFC and it will again in this match-up. Lay the points and bet Baltimore with confidence.

NFL Selections: Week 17

Bet of the Week: Baltimore

Chicago (+3) at Houston ---1 ½ units---

Available: Generally

The Bears are making a last ditch lunge at a divisional title and a playoff berth this weekend while Houston are done and have become this year’s “team that makes the run when it is all too late” team. This is a must win match-up for the Bears while the match is meaningless for the Texans. Chicago are currently 9-6 and a win will give them a chance to knockoff Minnesota for the NFC North and/or possibly the final wildcard position. They are coming into this on the back of two overtime wins and four victories in their last five matches. If the Bears keep the ball on the ground and play to the importance of the match, they will beat Houston. The Bears have already been backed this week so get on early as the money will most likely continue.

NFL Selections: Week 16

Bet of the Week: Baltimore

Baltimore (+5) at Dallas ---1 ½ units---
Under 39.5 Total Points ---1 unit---

Available: Generally (Both) (+5.0 @ 1.87 Pinnacle, U39.5 @ 1.98 Pinnacle)

The Ravens were desperately unlucky to lose to Pittsburgh last week with the Steelers benefiting from a dubious call that handed them a 13-9 lead with only a few ticks on the clock. It was a brutal, playoff-style game that proves the Ravens can mix it with the best. They travel to Dallas this week to take on a Cowboys team that is seemingly getting ripped apart by a feud between perennial troublemaker Terrell Owens and tight end Jason Whitten. The Cowboys got the money over the Giants last week but were anything but convincing, particularly with the ball. Tony Romo also appears to be pretty banged up at the moment and still seems a little loose with the ball. This has a low-scorer written all over it and the five points should be enough.

Arizona (+9) at New England ---1 unit---

Available : Generally (+9.0 @ 1.80 Pinnacle)

The Cards were embarrassed last week by a Minnesota Vikings team that had more to play for. They allowed Tavaris Jackson-yes, Tavaris Jackson- to burn them for four touchdowns in a display that had him looking like Steve Young. The Cards seemingly took a week off after securing the NFC West but Coach Whisenhunt is too smart to let his team limp into the playoffs. The Pats need this win more and will probably secure the w but the Cards should be able to keep it close with an eye to January. The nine points is far too big and a unit can be bet on the Cards at the plus.

New York Giants (-3) v Carolina --- ½ unit---

Available : Generally (-3.0 @ 1.86 Pinnacle)

The Giants have been a mess since Plax shot himself in the leg, losing to divisional rivals Philly and Dallas. Of most concern is the form of Eli Manning, who seems to be struggling to find open receivers and subsequently ending up on his back. The team’s defence remains solid, however, and they should cause all kinds of problems for Jake Delhomme. The Giants also have the secondary to contain Steve Smith more than the Broncos did. This is only a marginal bet but the Panthers on the road have looked shaky and against a quality team like New York may really struggle.

 

NFL Selections: Week 15

Bet of the Week: Tennessee Titans

Tennessee (-3) at Houston ---1 ½ units---

Available: Generally (-3.0 @ 1.893 Pinnacle)

The Titans have been a punters dream this season mainly due to a stingy defence and the emergence of Chris Johnson as one of the top running backs in the NFL. They have lost only once and more importantly to bettors, have covered every game they have won bar one, where they failed to cover against the Packers by ½ a point. Houston have covered in their last four but three of those were against very ordinary teams. The main problem for the Texans will be Matt Schaub: he is going to find it very difficult to move the ball against the Titans defence. The Titans have covered their last five against the Texans and I expect it will be six come Monday afternoon.

San Francisco (+6 ½) at Miami ---1 unit---

Available: Generally (+6.5 @ 1.98 Pinnacle)

The Niners have finally found some form, albeit too late to make a run at the divisional title. They have won three of their last four and covered in four of their last five including two straight-up wins as an underdog against AFC East teams. Their win against the Jets was most impressive with the defence finally stepping up and Shaun Hill providing the first decent quarterback option for the Niners since Jeff Garcia. Miami keep finding wins, having come out on top in six of their last seven. The majority of their games have been close, however, with their win over Buffalo last week their first double-figure win all season. The Niners are going to give Miami a shake this week and the 6 ½ points looks much too big.

New York Giants (+3) at Dallas ---1 unit---

Available: Generally (+3.0 @ 1.943 Pinnacle

The Cowboys loss to Pittsburgh last week was a season defining loss and one that is going to be very difficult to come back from. Leading 13-3 with less than nine minutes on the clock, the Cowboys allowed the Steelers to tie the game up before Tony Romo threw a pick that was returned for the game winning touchdown. Mentally, the Cowboys have been shaky all year and that loss will do nothing to help them. I don’t envisage them responding well to it. The Giants have been the number one team all year in the NFL and despite their loss last week to Philadelphia they still remain the team to beat with an 11-2 straight-up record and a 10-3 against the spread mark. The loss of Burress hurts the Giants but they are still in a better place than the Cowboys. Getting three points is a bonus. The Giants have covered their last two against Cowboys and are 4-1 against NFC East rivals this year.

Chicago (-3) v New Orleans ---1 unit---

Available: Generally (-3.0 @ 2.0 Pinnacle)

The Bears seem to be a little undersubscribed in their Thursday Night Football match-up with the New Orleans Saints and can be bet laying the three points at Soldier Field. The Bears have been reasonably consistent over the last six weeks, winning and covering when favoured and losing and not covering when sent out the dog. The Saints have covered in five of their last six but remain an unconvincing outfit on the road and they were anything but special in winning at home last week. Matt Forte is the key to victory for Chicago. He should be able to run all day against the Saints and if he can, the Bears can control the clock and put enough points on the board to win and cover.

NFL Selections: Week 14

Bet of the Week: Baltimore

Baltimore (-5) v Washington ---1 ½ units---

Available: Generally (-5.0 @ 1.92 Pinnacle, 1.91 Sportsbet & others)

We return to Old Faithful this week with Edgar Allen Poe’s team again the outstanding wager. The Blackbirds have been a punters dream this season with their stout defence, their rejuvenated offence and a coach who has proven he is not prone to the stupidity of his predecessor. The Ravens defence has again been outstanding this year and at home it has been impenetrable, allowing only 50 points in five home games with no team scoring more than one touchdown against the Ray Lewis-led D. That would have meant little last season but combined with a multi-dimensional offence that includes plenty of trickery, a cannon-arm QB and hard-nosed receivers, Baltimore are now one of the premier teams in the NFL. Washington have ticked along as expected this season, possibly a bit below that mark. They are in the wildcard race but they have been ordinary over the last month, mainly due to star tailback Clinton Portis being banged-up due to the Skins overreliance on him. They have lost three of their last four straight-up and have covered only one of their last seven, a scourge for Skins bettors. In a tough week, Baltimore again looks like the best bet to cover.

Buffalo ($1.91) v Miami ---1 unit---

Available: Centrebet

Numbers are big for the Bills this week despite some ordinary form of late which (hopefully) culminated in a crushing loss to the lowly Niners last week. San Fran became the first west coast team to win in the Eastern Time Zone all year. The Numbers project Buffalo to be a 5 point better team than the Dolphins with home field advantage (Toronto is almost home, at any rate) giving them a 8 point edge. Miami are also an ordinary 6-21-2 against the spread when playing within their division. Against the Bills, Miami are 1-7-1 against the points in their last nine matches. It is tough to ignore those numbers. The weather will also favour Buffalo with expected cold conditions suiting the northern team. Trent Edwards should be right to go for the Bills and if he is, Buffalo should be able to turn around their recent ordinary form.

Green Bay (-6) v Houston ---1 unit---

Available: Generally (-6.0 @ 2.02 Pinnacle)

Don’t get sucked into the Texans just yet. They won well on Monday Night Football but that performance was more about the Jacksonville team who turned in one of the most insipid, gutless performances of the year. They just mailed it in. Steve Slaton is a mighty runner and Mario Williams is one of the top pass-rushers in the NFL but the Texans are trying to play with a hopeless quarterback and some ordinary protection. The Packers, on the other hand, are a good team with a hot-and-cold quarterback. Their defence has been brilliant this year until the last two weeks where they have been picked apart in worrying fashion. They should bounce back this week and if the defence clicks, the margin in this one could be big. It also helps that The Pack have something to play for while Houston are doing it for pride.

NFL Selections: Week 13

Bet of the Week: Seattle Seahawks

Seattle (+12 ½) at Dallas ---1 ½ units---

Available: Generally (+12.5 @ 1.91 Pinnacle)

The Seahawks have struggled this season in what will be Mike Holmgren’s last year in charge. They are 2-9 with both wins coming inside the abhorrent NFC West and they look a shade of the team that won four consecutive division titles heading into this season. Having said that, they have been extremely competitive over the last three weeks against three teams with winning records and with 12 ½ points against a Cowboys team that has been hot and cold all year, the Hawks look a very good bet. Hasselbeck remains a quality hurler and Maurice Morris has found some form in recent times. Tony Romo appears to be back in his groove with the Cowboys but he could just as easily stink it up if Seattle can put any pressure on him. Seattle have covered their last three on the road and have covered in both their games where they have received more than a touchdown start. The line is too big and Seattle can be bet with some confidence.

Pittsburgh (+1) at New England ---1 unit---

Available: Generally (+1.0 @ 2.00 Pinnacle)

It comes as quite a surprise that the Patriots are favoured in this monster AFC clash. New England have been playing well of late now Matt Cassell has found his feet but Pittsburgh are considered one of the elite teams in the AFC and at 8-3 seem to be cruising along. Pittsburgh have also been better on the road in recent times than they have been at home, at least from a punting perspective, making the line all the more surprising. Pittsburgh have covered only one of their last five at home but have won and covered in three straight on the road. Big Ben’s shoulder seems to have healed and he could make a mess of the Pats secondary. The strong Pittsburgh defence should also cause Matt Cassell more problems than he has faced in recent weeks. Pittsburgh can be bet into favouritism.

New York Jets (-7 ½) v Denver ---1 unit---

Available: Centrebet (-7.5 @ 1.91)

The Jets are the hottest team in football at present and have endeared themselves to the punting public of late, winning their last five and covering in their last four. Denver, conversely, have been a nightmare team for bettors, going 3-7-1 against the spread. Last week the Broncos were towelled 31-10 by an Oakland team that hadn’t scored an offensive touchdown in a month. The Jets meanwhile went to Nashville and decimated the undefeated Tennessee Titans. Favre is hot, Jones is running in career best form and the Denver defence is looser than Jenna Jamieson. Expect the Jets to win big.

NFL Selections: Week 12

Bet of the Week: Green Bay

Green Bay (+3) at New Orleans ---2 units---

Available: Generally

The Packers are in a great situation this week against the New Orleans Saints and are unbelievably, three-point dogs for this Monday Night Football clash. In terms of yards per point, the Packers should be five point favourites, before even factoring in home ground advantage for the Saints. They are simply a much better team than the Saints, who seem constrained by locker room personalities and a want to entertain. The Packers have covered five straight heading into this one including three on the road and have held opponents to less than twenty points in four of those five matches. That defence should prove enough to create problems for Brees and company. The points look good in this one in what is one of the bets of the season, to date.

Baltimore (-1) v Philadelphia ---1 ½ units---

Available: Generally

The Ravens were touched up by the Super Bowl favourites New York Giants last weekend while Philadelphia fought out a lifeless tie with the pathetic Cincinnati Bengals. Never mind the scoreboard in the Ravens game: they will come into this contest full of confidence. It is tough to see Philadelphia being able to move the ball at all against the Ravens defence, particularly if they fall behind early. Donovan McNabb is looking washed-up at present with his three pick, less than 50% completion rate game against the Bengals highlighting just how far he has fallen. Brian Westbrook is still a classy tailback but he, for some reason, has had his opportunities limited in recent times and at any rate, it is unlikely that he would trouble the Ravens quality run defence. If Flacco can scratch his last-start performance from his mind and just manage the game, the Ravens won’t only cover but will record a double-figure win. Note, the Ravens have covered or pushed in every home game this season.

Carolina (+1 ½) at Atlanta ---1 unit---

Available: Centrebet

I remain unconvinced by Atlanta. They have certainly overachieved and Matt Ryan is certainly the rookie of the year to date but I don’t believe they are the real deal and I don’t fancy they are going to the playoffs. The Carolina Panthers, on the other hand, have been ticking along quietly and most importantly are a team with an identity. They play power football and they do it well. The Panthers are running the ball effectively (6th in the NFL) and stopping other teams with force (8th in defence in the NFL). Expect the Hall-Stewart tandem to put dents in the Falcons 23rd ranked defence and get the win in a low scorer. Note, the Panthers have covered in five of their last seven against the Falcons in this NFC South match-up.

NFL Selections: Week 11

Bet of the Week: New York Jets

New York Jets (+3 ½) at New England ---1 unit---

Available: Sportingbet, Sports Acumen, Pinnacle

The AFC East has become a difficult division to call this season. Brady went down, bringing the Pats back to the pack. Favre has made the Jets an attacking force. The Bills flew from the box but now seem to be in the throes of an identity crisis. And the Dolphins are having fun and winning while they do it. This Friday the fiercest rivalry in the division is set to resume when the Jets travel to Foxboro to take on the Pats. It is Mangini against Bellichick, protégé against mentor, once more. The Pats have had the edge on the Jets in recent years, winning nine of the last ten match-ups and covering in seven of those. This contest is different though. There is no Brady and the Jets have Favre. The Pats won early this year 19-10 but the Jets are going better at the moment and the points look good in this. The best measuring stick is how both teams handled St. Louis. The Jets treated St. Louis with contempt last week, leading 40-0 at the half and then resting starters and taking knees for the remainder of the game before winning 47-3. The Pats met the Rams at home three weeks back and were down 16-13 in the last quarter before rallying for the win. The Jets seem to have too much offensive firepower at the moment and if they connect they could tear a feeble Pats secondary to shreds. Take the Jets with the points in the early game of the week.

Baltimore (+6 ½) at New York Giants ---1 unit---

Available: Generally (+6.5 @ 2.0 Pinnacle)

It has reached the point where if I become any fonder of the Ravens then I may need to ask for their hand in marriage or at least meet their parents. The Ravens and I have gotten tight this year but the reasons have been pure: Baltimore are continually underrated by oddsmakers and they continually cover when bet (7-1 with a push). Such a profitable relationship has also caused me to develop somewhat of a “man-crush” on Joe Flacco. Never mind all that, however. The fact remains that the Ravens have been undersold once again and the 6 ½ points look a sound bet in what should be a very good match. The Giants success this season has been running the ball but they come up against the best run stopping team in the league this week meaning it will likely be up to Eli Manning to win the game. He has been hot and cold in recent times. The Giants defence has also looked a little frail, particularly against the Eagles where they allowed 31 points. This should be a close one and the 6 ½ points definitely look too high.

Miami/Pittsburgh Money Line Double ($1.70) v Oakland/San Diego ---1 unit---

Available: Generally (Best: Pinnacle at $1.776)

West Coast teams are 0-13 when playing in the Eastern Time Zone this season (thanks TMQ of www.espn.com). It seems a fairly safe bet that they will be 0-15 after this weekend. The Dolphins should have no problem with an Oakland defence that is insipid and an offence that has produced only nine touchdowns all year. The Steelers also looked well matched against a dreadfully overrated Chargers team. Pittsburgh’s tough defence should shut down a struggling Chargers offence and that should be that. Cold weather will only increase the confidence on Pittsburgh.

NFL Selections: Week 10

Bet of the Week: Baltimore

Baltimore (-1) at Houston ---1 unit---

Available: Generally (-1 @ 1.935 IASBet)

Readers of this column are well versed in the strengths of the Baltimore Ravens so we will keep this brief. The Ravens match-up exceptionally well against Houston and continue to be underrated by bookmakers and punters alike. The strength of Houston is the run with Steve Slaton emerging as one of the best young tailbacks in the game. He comes up against the best run defence in the NFL. The Ravens will shut him down and with him the Texans. Another win for Baltimore is on the cards.

Buffalo (+4) at New England ---½ unit---

Available: Sportsbet (+4 @ 1.91)

Buffalo have been somewhat inconsistent over the last month with their loss to the Jets last weekend their worst defeat. They abandoned their strong running game and were subsequently handed a convincing loss. Prior to that the Bills had recorded a win against San Diego but suffered losses to Arizona and Miami. Buffalo get their opportunity to right the ship this weekend, however, against a Patriots team that did not look good last Sunday against the Colts. The key for the Bills will be their ability to run the ball. Marshawn Lynch is a tremendous presence but he needs to be given the ball. The Pats are only a middling team in stopping the run and the Bills need to take advantage of that. New England’s inability to score points against good defences (the Pats have broken 24 only twice this season) should also work in our favour as the game should remain close. I have this game priced as a pick so the four points for the Bills look a bet.

New York Giants (+3) at Philadelphia ---½ unit---

Available: Generally (+3 @ 1.893 Pinnacle)

It is tough to pot the Giants. They are the defending Super Bowl champions with a 7-1 record who have covered six of eight this season. They travel to Philadelphia- a tough task, no doubt- but a place where they have covered the last three seasons. The Giants last two wins have been particularly impressive, destroying Dallas after a gutsy win over Pittsburgh. The Giants should be slight road favourites here instead of three point dogs. Take the gift and hope Manning keeps his nerve.

NFL Selections: Week 9

Bet of the Week: Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore (+1 ½) at Cleveland ---1 ½ units---

Available: Generally (+1.5 @ 1.935 IAS)

Here we are again with the Baltimore Ravens as the bet of the week. The Ravens were classy last week in shutting down the Oakland Raiders. The defensive unit laid the groundwork for the win after allowing only 35 first half-yards and forcing an opening score safety. They allowed only 47 rushing yards at 2.5 yards per carry throughout the course of the game while allowing Raiders QB Jamarcus Russell to complete only 15 of 33 passes. With the ball, the Ravens were just as impressive. Joe Flacco’s decision-making was better, the multi-pronged running game averaged 4.2 yards per carry and the use of Flacco at wideout showed the offence is starting to get some flair. Cleveland enters the game on the back of a win after a gritty performance at Jacksonville. There wasn’t much there to write home about, however. The Cleveland offence again struggled and up against a better defence in Baltimore this week, it is difficult to see them moving the ball effectively. Teams can’t run the ball against the Ravens and that will force Derek Anderson to throw, something he has struggled with this season. Baltimore are well favoured by this match-up and should rack up another win.

Miami (+3 ½) at Denver ---1 unit---

Available: Sportingbet

The Dolphins have surprised me this year. After an ordinary start they “got weird” and bought out their wildcat offence that bought about a couple of wins. When tape of that became available, opposition teams began to figure them out. And then they come out and beat Buffalo in what was their best performance in years. Ronnie Brown has been the key to the Dolphins success though quarterback Chad Pennington must be given his dues after settling in and playing good, safe football. The Dolphins travel to Denver this week to take on the Broncos, ranked 30 in the NFL in defence. The Dolphins are going to be able to use and abuse the insipid Denver defence. If Miami’s defence can hold, Miami are capable of knocking off Denver in the Rocky Mountain State. It is also important to note that the Dolphins have covered their last five against Denver. The points look good in this one.

 

 

NFL Selections: Week 8

Bet of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh (-2 ½) v New York Giants ---2 units---

Available: Sportingbet

The Steelers have been exceptional this season. They have accumulated a 5-1 record with the number one defence in the league that is allowing only 228.3 yards per game and an offence that has been courageous considering they have lost their two top tailbacks and their quarterback has been banged-up all season. The Steelers enter this clash on the back of a much-needed bye week that will see the Steelers fresh for the first time since opening week. They take on a New York Giants team that are also 5-1 but who look to be stumbling. Two weeks back the Giants were comprehensively beaten by the 2-4 Browns while last week they struggled to assert themselves against the pathetic San Francisco 49ers. The Giants ended up claiming that game on the back of a solid pass-rush. They will not get to the quarterback nearly as often this week. With an offence that is struggling, the Giants look to be headed to their second loss of the year. Pittsburgh can be bet with confidence.

Buffalo (-1) at Miami ---1 ½ units---

Available: Sportingbet

Trent Edwards is the perfect quarterback for the Buffalo system. He is a game manager who completes his passes, doesn’t throw interceptions and is cool under pressure. In every game he has played out this year, the Bills have won. He was very good against the Chargers last week, completing 25 of 30 for 261 yards. With Lynch in the backfield, the Bills have a dangerous and efficient offence. Buffalo’s defence has also been exceptional this season, ranking tenth in the league, allowing only 293 yards per game. That defence will be strong enough to shutdown a Miami team who has been bought back to earth over the last few weeks once their wildcat offence had been made public. The Ravens comprehensively shut the Dolphins down last week, allowing tailbacks Brown and Williams only 43 yards on 17 carries. The Bills are a better team than the Dolphins and should win well this week.

Tennessee (-4) v Indianapolis ---1 ½ units---

Available: Generally

The landscape in the AFC South has changed this season with the era of the Colts now officially over and the Titans emerging as one of the best teams in football. Indy have stammered along all season and aside from a dominant victory over Baltimore, they have struggled to get it all together. Against a good defensive team in Green Bay, Peyton Manning completed only 50% of his passes and threw two interceptions while their running game was held to 3.2 yards per carry. The Packers rank 15th in the NFL in terms of defence. Tennessee rank three. They are going to make life hell for the Colts. With the Titans running the ball exceptionally well with Johnson and White combining for 317 yards on 35 carries last week, the Colts are going to struggle to get the ball and move it. Expect the Titans to make it 7-0 with a relatively comfortable win over Indy at home.

 

NFL Selections: Week 7

Bet of the Week: Baltimore

Baltimore (+3) at Miami ---2 units---

Available: Generally

The Baltimore Ravens, for the third consecutive week and the fourth time this season, are the bet of the week. The Ravens got blown out in embarrassing fashion by the Colts in week six with Peyton Manning finally firing and the Colts defence eventually stepping up. Baltimore’s defence remained solid enough, particularly against the run where they allowed only 76 rushing yards on 30 runs. The problem for the Ravens defence was the bad field position they were constantly put in by three Joe Flacco interceptions and two lost fumbles. No team recovers from a turnover differential of five in a single game. The Dolphins have picked up in recent weeks since introducing the single-wing formation into their offence that has seen the New England and San Diego defences completely flummoxed. Both teams struggled to deal with the direct snaps to Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams and the constant motion the Dolphins put in play. Houston, however, managed to control the Dolphins running game last week and subsequently get their first win of the season with Miami looking far less in control than they had the previous two weeks. Now their quirky offence has been exposed, Miami will not catch the Ravens defence, one of the best defences in the league, by surprise. Baltimore, if they can maintain possession this week, should beat Miami. The three points are an added bonus.

Tennessee (-7 ½) at Kansas City ---1 ½ units---

Available: Sportingbet

Be assured of this: Kansas City are not going to be scoring many points. The Titans lead the NFL in points allowed per game (11.2) and sit fourth in total yards allowed. Kansas City rank 31st in the league in points scored per game and 29th in total offensive yards and have been through three quarterbacks already. The Chiefs will not reach double figures. The Titans offence has not been sensational this season but it has been more than reliable since Kerry Collins took over as quarterback with the team scoring 30-plus against Minnesota and Houston before a gritty win against Baltimore. The Titans are the real deal and should have little trouble in disposing of the hapless Chiefs.

Green Bay (+2) v Indianapolis ---1 unit---

Available: Centrebet

The Indy offence finally clicked last week. Manning put up good numbers and Marvin Harrison finally involved himself. The Colts did, however, benefit from five Ravens turnovers (as noted in the Ravens-Dolphins preview). Prior to their big win over Baltimore, Indy has been sputtering along. They come up against the number seven pass defence in the league this week and are likely not going to be the beneficiary of so many turnovers again. The Packers, with Aaron Rodgers under centre, have hardly looked a champion team but they have been ticking along well. Ryan Grant is starting to find his 2007 form and Greg Jennings has been playing in fine fettle. Lambeau is a tough ballpark to win in and Green Bay have the tools to shut down the Indy passing game. With the Colts unable to go to the run with Joseph Addai likely out, the Packers are a solid bet.

New York Jets (-3) at Oakland --- ½ unit---

Available: Generally

Oakland are once again embarrassing themselves this season with a 1-4 record and internal disruptions that has seen Lane Kiffin fired as head coach. The Raiders were pathetic against the Saints last week in their first game under new coach Tom Cable, losing 34-3 in an absolute rout with Jamarcus Russell going 13/35 with a pick and the rushing game averaging only 3.9 yards per carry. The Jets got the job done against the Bengals in a gritty win where they always seemed to be in control but could not quite shake their opponents. Brett Favre had one of his worst games of the season but still managed to direct the Jets to a win and a cover. He can always be expected to recover quickly and with the tools in the Jets offence, a road win looks to be on the cards for the New York Jets.

 

NFL Selections: Week 6

Bet of the Week: Baltimore

Baltimore (+4.5) at Indianapolis ---2 ½ units---

Available: Generally

The Ravens were stiff last Sunday for the second consecutive hard-loss game in a row. They had the Titans-one of the best teams in the NFL- beat before some bad luck and a defensive lapse allowed Kerry Collins to match them upfield for the winning touchdown. Prior to that the Ravens suffered a tough OT loss to Pittsburgh. The Ravens could conversely be 4-0. Indy, on the other hand, could be 0-4 and have been dreadful this season. It took a Sage Rosenfels mental implosion to give the Colts the win over Houston last week. The Colts were also lucky to get the win at Minnesota as well. Yards Per Point analysis has Baltimore big faves in this one and there has been nothing shown to suggest the Ravens shouldn’t be in the chalk this week. The Colts offensive line has been ordinary and will struggle to stop the wild Ravens defence; the Ravens are running well and will have a field day against the Colts awful run defence and the new Colts home ground hardly seems to provide them with much of an advantage. Joe Flacco will be asked to manage the game and looks more than capable of doing that. Take the 4 ½ points for the best wager of the season, to date.

 

New York Jets (-6) v Cincinnati ---1 ½ units---
Over 44.5 ---½ unit---

Available: Both Generally

This is just a hideous match-up for a putrid Bengals team who have started off the season 0-5. Marv Lewis and his team head to the Meadowlands on the back of a blown game against Dallas to meet a Brett Favre-led Jets team who have found their feet and have had two weeks to prepare for this. Cincy cannot run the ball, they cannot stop the run and they have a banged-up quarterback who seems a little shaky at present. The Jets have Jones running hard, Favre connecting with his receivers and the belief that the AFC East is their for the taking. Expect the Jets to murder the Bengals in a high scoring game with Bengals games averaging 51 total points in their last two on the road and the last two Jets games totalling 77 and 91 points respectively.

 

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Denver ---1 unit---

Available: Generally

I remain unconvinced by the Denver Broncos despite their 4-1 record. They got smashed by Kansas City and they have not won a home game by greater than three points. The Denver run defence is particularly concerning with the team ranking 25th against the run. The Jags have struggled to establish their running game this year but there is no doubt that the Taylor/Jones-Drew tandem is classy and is just waiting to break out. The 3 ½ points for a quality team look good here.

NFL Selections: Week 5

Bet of the Week: Baltimore

Baltimore (+3) v Tennessee ---1 unit---
Under 33 ---1 unit---

Available: Generally

Joe Flacco is the real deal. He is going to make a great NFL quarterback if his performance against the Steelers is anything to go by. He was loose, smart and efficient against one of the premier defenses in the NFL. The Ravens defense was also something to behold against Pittsburgh with Ray Lewis completely rejuvenated and Terrell Suggs simply outstanding. The Ravens are going places and with the three points at home they look a very good wager this week. The Titans are also a good team and it would not surprise me if this was the match-up in the AFC Championship Game in January. The Titans, like the Ravens, are basing their success on defense and a sound running game. Chris Johnson is an outstanding prospect at tailback for Tennessee but he faces his stiffest test this week against one of the best run defenses in the game. Expect this one to be a dour slugfest with very few points. Take the start and the under.

Minnesota (+3 ½) at New Orleans ---1 unit---

Available: Generally

The Vikings get a very good match-up on their second Monday Night Football match of the season against a New Orleans team that is firing on offense but hopelessly underperforming on defense. Drew Brees has been outstanding for the Saints this year but the team’s reliance on him could prove costly this week with the Vikings defense the first top twelve defense Brees has faced this season. The Saints are not going to move the ball with the simplicity they have in their four opening matches. Adrian Peterson also looks set to have a field day against the 27th ranked defense. Peterson was good against the Titans last week taking the ball 4.4 yards per carry. That number will increase markedly against the Saints’ worse-than-average defense. The Vikings have also won five of their last six against New Orleans straight-up. With the experienced Gus Frerotte under center, the Vikings can now be bet with more confidence. Take them with the points.

Washington (+ 5 ½) at Philadelphia ---½ unit---

Available: Generally

Washington have really slipped under the radar to date. After a shocking effort in week one against the Giants the Skins have been outstanding in defeating New Orleans, Arizona and Dallas, all predicted division winners from yours truly. Jason Campbell has really stepped up this season, throwing six touchdowns and more importantly, no interceptions. Clinton Portis has also been solid in both the running and passing games. Philly are a good team but are clearly struggling with injury. The loss of Brian Westbrook cost them dearly last week and there is no certainty he will play or play fully healthy this week. In the final quarter the Eagles had three cracks at the Bears line from the one and couldn’t get over with Buckhalter falling short twice. If he is given carries this week, the Eagles are going to struggle to score. Also of interest is the fact the away team has won six of the last nine match-ups between these two divisional rivals. With the Eagles banged up and Washington in white-hot form, take the Skins and the points in the city of brotherly love.

NFL Selections: Week 4

Bet of the Week: Denver Broncos

Denver (-9) at Kansas City ---1 ½ units---

Available: Sportingbet

The Broncos have burst from the gates this year on their way to a 3-0 record. They have done so on the back of a firing offense that has averaged 38 points per game with quarterback Jay Cutler throwing for 914 yards with 8 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The Chiefs, conversely, have been insipid in losing three on end with their young roster clearly not accustomed to the rigours of NFL football yet. KC has already gone through three quarterbacks with each looking as bad as the others. The offense has scored only 32 points all season with the defense not looking any better after allowing 38 points against the lowly Atlanta last week. Denver are going to score points this weekend and Kansas City are not. With Denver having murdered the Chiefs in both match-ups last season, it is tough imagining this game being closer than three touchdowns.

Cleveland (+3.5) at Cincinnati ---1 ½ units---

Available: Generally

Both the Browns and the Bengals have been awful this season on their way to identical 0-3 records. For the Bengals the start was somewhat expected given their disjointed roster and lack of leadership. The Browns faithful, however, would be bitterly disappointed with their start as there were high hopes in the Dawg Pound. While Cincy turned in the best performance of either team last week in taking the Giants to overtime, the Browns remain a better team, at least offensively, and look a good bet with 3 ½ points. Cleveland have scored only 26 points this season but they have started against three of the best defensive outfits in the NFL in the Cowboys, Steelers (in a gale) and Ravens. The Bengals, on the other hand, are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Browns put 51 points on Cincy when the teams met for the first time in 2007. Expect the Browns to finally click and put a score on the hapless Bengals.

Arizona (+1.5) at New York Jets ---½ unit---

Available: Generally

The formlines of Arizona look pretty good. They defeated the 49ers, who have come out and won two on end, before rolling a Miami team who came out and smacked New England in Foxboro in week three. Last weekend the Cards looked to have the Redskins beaten before a late interception turned the tide. Against a New York Jets team that is struggling to establish a running game and has an injured Brett Favre under centre, Arizona can win as an underdog at the Meadowlands. It should also be noted that the Cards have covered three of their last four stretching back to week 17 last year.

NFL Selections: Week 3

Bet of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh (+3 ½) at Philadelphia ---1 Unit---

Available: Generally

Pittsburgh were tough and gritty in beating the Cleveland Browns 10-6 in gale-force wins last weekend. It was a victory of great courage, particularly considering the fact quarterback Ben Roethlisberger played with a sprained shoulder. The Steelers ran the ball effectively (thank you Willie Parker) and were outstanding in stopping the run, holding the Browns to 2.1 yards per play without allowing a run longer than 8 yards. Philadelphia don’t seem nearly as sturdy as the Steelers after a cakewalk against St. Louis and a shootout loss to the Cowboys in a game they really should have won considering the luck that went their way. Brian Westbrook is playing okay but Donovan McNabb may struggle to get an easy time of it against a decent Steelers pass-rush. The Steelers were a much better team than Philadelphia in 2007 and the two weeks of NFL action this year have done little to change that opinion. The Steelers with the points (assuming Big Ben plays, as he is expected too) looks a very good bet.

New Orleans (+6) at Denver ---1 Unit---

Available: Centrebet

The Denver Broncos seem to be better than first anticipated. They tore apart Oakland in week one (nothing too surprising there) and followed that up with a huge late-game win over the highly fancied San Diego Chargers in what was a wild west shootout that ended 39-38 with a successful Broncos two-point conversion after a controversial late touchdown. While Denver looked good with the ball- quarterback Jay Cutler in particular, who went 36/50 for 350 yards, 4 touchdowns and one pick- they had major problems with their defense. The Broncos pass-rush was non-existent while the secondary allowed a middling quarterback to dominate them. Denver face a much stronger passing attack in the New Orleans Saints this week in what looks a very bad match-up for the Broncos. Drew Brees has been playing well, completing nearly 70% of his passes in the Saints pass heavy attack. If Reggie Bush can make any impact on the ground, Brees should be able to pick apart the Broncos vulnerable secondary that is most fragile outside of Champ Bailey. The 6 points look sound in this one.

NFL Selections: Week 2

Bet of the Week: Tennessee Titans

Tennessee (+1) at Cincinnati ---1 ½ Units---

Available: Generally

The Vince Young injury may actually be the best thing that could happen to the Titans. Young was dreadful against the Jags, going 12/22 for 110 yards with a TD and two picks. Kerry Collins will start this week and he seems a safer proposition, particularly after going 2/2 for 65 yards in the opening week. Collins will manage the game and that is all that needs to be done against the Bengals as an explosive running game and a stout defense should put the Titans in the box seat for victory. The Titans running game was exceptional in week one with rookie Chris Johnson dynamic as both a runner and a receiver. He will have a field day against a team that ranked 27th in defense last year and allowed 229 rushing yards last week against the Ravens at 4.98 yards per attempt. The Titans defense was also super impressive last weekend, shutting down one of the best running duos in the NFL, keeping Taylor and Jones-Drew to 31 yards on 14 carries and forcing David Garrard into two picks. With Palmer looking decidedly shaky, it is impossible envisaging the Bengals moving the ball. The Titans will win this in a low scorer.

Jacksonville (-5) v Buffalo ---½ Unit---

Available: Sportingbet

As noted above, the Jags were beaten by a pretty handy team in week one. The Titans are going places and a close road close is no shame, particularly considering Tennessee have had their measure in recent years. The Jags will be ready to bounce back against Buffalo in their home opener. Jacksonville will be able to establish the run more easily this week and that should lay the platform for a victory. The Jags are at their best when they run first and then pass later when Garrard is not pressured and has time and room. Buffalo were impressive in decimating Seattle in week one but will face a much tougher team this time around. They are boosted by the return of OL Jason Peters. Question marks, however, remain over the Bills on the road and how effective their offense will be. These two teams met in 2007 with the Jags winning 36-14.

NFL Selections: Week 1

Bet of the Week: Baltimore

Baltimore ($2.10) v Cincinnati ---1 ½ Units---

Available: Pinnacle

The Ravens are the real sleepers this year and can kick off the season in good style against faltering divisional rivals Cincinnati. The Ravens are definitely a team on the up while the Bengals look set to be among the worst quarter of teams in the NFL. As a home underdog in the opening week, the Ravens look a standout bet. With problems at quarterback, expect the Ravens to be run-first. With Willis McGahee and Ray Rice, this is a good choice. The Bengals were terrible at stopping the run last season, giving up 118.3 yards on the ground per game. McGahee is going to have a field day. The Bengals offense is also not what it once was and they may struggle to score against one of the better defenses in the NFL. The Ravens will kick off a solid campaign by winning their first encounter of the season.

Tennessee (+3) v Jacksonville --- ½ Unit---

Available: Generally

The Titans are generally very tough to beat in Nashville, going 5-3 last season with two of their losses coming against Indianapolis (two points) and San Diego (overtime). They are a team that play a conservative game, ensuring they are usually well in the game come the fourth quarter. With the addition of Chris Johnson and Alge Crumpler, Jeff Fisher has the pieces in place to play his kind of game. The Jags enter the season as a boom team once again and while they will likely be their consistently good selves, there are a few question marks surrounding their quarterback and pass rush. The Titans look a handy bet as a home dog. Expect this to be a real dogfight with the game going right down to the wire. These games are always good to take the points in.

Nick's 2007 Betting Record

To download an Excel Spreadsheet with every 2007 suggested play, click here.

Nick's 2006 Betting Record

To download an Excel Spreadsheet with every 2006 suggested play, click here.

Nick's 2005 Betting Record

To download an Excel Spreadsheet with every 2005 suggested play, click here.

To view all of Nick's 2007 predictions, click here.

To view all of Nick's 2006 predictions, click here.

To view al of Nick's 2005 predictions, click here.

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