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Mr Cricket: Indian Premier League
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by Punting Ace » Fri Mar 19, 2010 8:01 pm
Indian Premier League
Deccan v Punjab
Deccan enter this clash as firm favourites and rightly so against a Punjab side that is one of only two teams that hasn't won a game of yet. We never liked Punjab in this competition and early results have showed we are on the mark. However the men from Punjab haven't been totally hopless. They managed to score 203 against Bangalore - a score that would win nine out of 10 IPL games - yet got run down pretty easily when Jacques Kallis hit paydirt.
Punjab's main worry is with the ball - outside of quicks Sreesanth and Irfan Pathan they really do battle. And both of those men we just mentioned can be smashed if they are slightly off their game. Punjab's batting is OK but too inconsistent, they never all seem to click on the one night. The likes of Yuvraj Singh, Ravi Bopara and Kumar Sangakkara all go well at times individually but this team never seems to put it all together. It's hard to put a finger on exactly why they struggle with the bat but we think this team just doesn't gel and have the team spirit of a lot of other IPL franchises.
Deccan is a mob that can certainly be hot and cold but a lot of their batsmen finally started to click in the recent win over Chennai. Adam Gilchrist continued his good form while it must have been fantastic for Deccan to see Herschelle Gibbs finally in the runs after grave worries over his form and mental state. Andrew Symonds has been getting amongst the runs which is good to see (he's been out of form in domestic cricket for ages) while Rohit Sharma is a fantastic batting backup to the big guns. We certainly think Deccan have Punjab covered on the batting side of things.
You could say the bowling cancels each other out - neither is particularly strong - although we do think Deccan have slightly more variety. Chaminda Vaas and RP Singh can both swing the ball beautifully (very useful in Indian conditions) while Symonds is good with his medium pace or offspin depending on the conditions. Another big plus for Deccan could be the inclusion of West Indian speedster Kemar Roach, the man who hurt Ricky Ponting and shook up Australia last summer.
We think Deccan will win this game but they are not juicy odds at around the 1.70 mark. We certainly don't want to bet under 1.65 but we'll have a small bet at that mark or better because we are pretty comfortable with them winning this match. Having said that we really like tonight's earlier match a lot more - make that your main IPL bet of the night because Chennai certainly are great value against Delhi. We'll have a small bet on Deccan in the later match. If you want to inflate the odds, a multi with the outsiders in the earlier game (Chennai) into the faves in this later game (Deccan) could be one way to go.
BET 1 unit Deccan @ 1.69 Betfair, Cricketbetlive (no bet under 1.65)
Delhi v Chennai
There is some big injury news surrounding this game with the captains of both sides unable to play. Delhi's Gautam Gambhir, the opening batsman who along with Virender Sehwag has taken the IPL by storm in recent years, is out and will be a huge loss. Dinesh Kartik will lead Delhi in Gambhir's absence - with Aussie super blaster Dave Warner likely to step into Gambhir's shoes at the top of the order.
For Chennai, they will be without injured captain and Indian hero MS Dhoni and they will be captained by Suresh Raina, a fine Indian batsman who we really rate in this format.
This is a really important game for both these franchises. They both sit around the middle of the table (Delhi have two wins from three games while Chennai have one win from two games). Delhi were cruising along beautifully until they hit a massive speedbump in the form of Sachin Tendulkar's fired-up Mumbai side in their most recent game. Delhi got absolutely whipped and if they are the real title contenders we think they are, then they simply must bounce back here.
However we think they are certainly under the odds as favourites in this game - we are concerned by the look of their side without Gambhir at the top of the innings but more so their bowling. If Dirk Nannes doesn't bowl well with the new ball then they are missing some backup - the rest of their bowlers are basically a bunch of no-names. This lack of bowling depth is usually covered up by Delhi's super-strong batting lineup but they had significant wobbles the other night and Gambhir's loss is a huge one.
We were happy to pot Chennai at the start of the tournament (and we will are for most games - we don't think they will be there at the business end of the tournament). However we do think they are over the odds here and look to be a good value bet.
Even without Dhoni, Chennai has Matthew Hayden, Raina and South African Justin Kemp (who must surely produce some fireworks at some stage). They will be eyeing off a Delhi attack without the injured Ashish Nehra and targetting this as a must-win game - they won't want to be one from three.
Hayden is yet to really fire and he will be desperate and could be joined at the top of the order by Dhoni's replacement behind the stumps, Parthiv Patel, who is a terrific little batsman. Tasmanian George Bailey is another batsman who could come into contention. AB Morkel can be a weapon with both bat and ball for Chennai - and we also get the feeling that Muttiah Muralidaran is starting to bowl better in this 20-over format. Murali took 1-16 off four overs the other night and another performance like that will go a long way towards helping Chennai to a win.
I'm in a funny old betting position in this game - I do like Delhi for the title and we are still happy to pot Chennai to win the big prize. But in this game we do think Chennai are particularly good value against a Delhi side that has a couple of key players out and will have had its confidence battered the other night. I think Delhi will miss Gambhir more than Chennai will miss Dhoni. I'm positive that Chennai is outstanding value and happy to put my money where my mouth is.
BET 2 units Chennai @2.2 or better (2.33 Pinnacle, 2.3 Sportsbet, IAS)
© 2010 Punting Ace.com
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Deccan v Punjab
Deccan enter this clash as firm favourites and rightly so against a Punjab side that is one of only two teams that hasn't won a game of yet. We never liked Punjab in this competition and early results have showed we are on the mark. However the men from Punjab haven't been totally hopless. They managed to score 203 against Bangalore - a score that would win nine out of 10 IPL games - yet got run down pretty easily when Jacques Kallis hit paydirt.
Punjab's main worry is with the ball - outside of quicks Sreesanth and Irfan Pathan they really do battle. And both of those men we just mentioned can be smashed if they are slightly off their game. Punjab's batting is OK but too inconsistent, they never all seem to click on the one night. The likes of Yuvraj Singh, Ravi Bopara and Kumar Sangakkara all go well at times individually but this team never seems to put it all together. It's hard to put a finger on exactly why they struggle with the bat but we think this team just doesn't gel and have the team spirit of a lot of other IPL franchises.
Deccan is a mob that can certainly be hot and cold but a lot of their batsmen finally started to click in the recent win over Chennai. Adam Gilchrist continued his good form while it must have been fantastic for Deccan to see Herschelle Gibbs finally in the runs after grave worries over his form and mental state. Andrew Symonds has been getting amongst the runs which is good to see (he's been out of form in domestic cricket for ages) while Rohit Sharma is a fantastic batting backup to the big guns. We certainly think Deccan have Punjab covered on the batting side of things.
You could say the bowling cancels each other out - neither is particularly strong - although we do think Deccan have slightly more variety. Chaminda Vaas and RP Singh can both swing the ball beautifully (very useful in Indian conditions) while Symonds is good with his medium pace or offspin depending on the conditions. Another big plus for Deccan could be the inclusion of West Indian speedster Kemar Roach, the man who hurt Ricky Ponting and shook up Australia last summer.
We think Deccan will win this game but they are not juicy odds at around the 1.70 mark. We certainly don't want to bet under 1.65 but we'll have a small bet at that mark or better because we are pretty comfortable with them winning this match. Having said that we really like tonight's earlier match a lot more - make that your main IPL bet of the night because Chennai certainly are great value against Delhi. We'll have a small bet on Deccan in the later match. If you want to inflate the odds, a multi with the outsiders in the earlier game (Chennai) into the faves in this later game (Deccan) could be one way to go.
BET 1 unit Deccan @ 1.69 Betfair, Cricketbetlive (no bet under 1.65)
Delhi v Chennai
There is some big injury news surrounding this game with the captains of both sides unable to play. Delhi's Gautam Gambhir, the opening batsman who along with Virender Sehwag has taken the IPL by storm in recent years, is out and will be a huge loss. Dinesh Kartik will lead Delhi in Gambhir's absence - with Aussie super blaster Dave Warner likely to step into Gambhir's shoes at the top of the order.
For Chennai, they will be without injured captain and Indian hero MS Dhoni and they will be captained by Suresh Raina, a fine Indian batsman who we really rate in this format.
This is a really important game for both these franchises. They both sit around the middle of the table (Delhi have two wins from three games while Chennai have one win from two games). Delhi were cruising along beautifully until they hit a massive speedbump in the form of Sachin Tendulkar's fired-up Mumbai side in their most recent game. Delhi got absolutely whipped and if they are the real title contenders we think they are, then they simply must bounce back here.
However we think they are certainly under the odds as favourites in this game - we are concerned by the look of their side without Gambhir at the top of the innings but more so their bowling. If Dirk Nannes doesn't bowl well with the new ball then they are missing some backup - the rest of their bowlers are basically a bunch of no-names. This lack of bowling depth is usually covered up by Delhi's super-strong batting lineup but they had significant wobbles the other night and Gambhir's loss is a huge one.
We were happy to pot Chennai at the start of the tournament (and we will are for most games - we don't think they will be there at the business end of the tournament). However we do think they are over the odds here and look to be a good value bet.
Even without Dhoni, Chennai has Matthew Hayden, Raina and South African Justin Kemp (who must surely produce some fireworks at some stage). They will be eyeing off a Delhi attack without the injured Ashish Nehra and targetting this as a must-win game - they won't want to be one from three.
Hayden is yet to really fire and he will be desperate and could be joined at the top of the order by Dhoni's replacement behind the stumps, Parthiv Patel, who is a terrific little batsman. Tasmanian George Bailey is another batsman who could come into contention. AB Morkel can be a weapon with both bat and ball for Chennai - and we also get the feeling that Muttiah Muralidaran is starting to bowl better in this 20-over format. Murali took 1-16 off four overs the other night and another performance like that will go a long way towards helping Chennai to a win.
I'm in a funny old betting position in this game - I do like Delhi for the title and we are still happy to pot Chennai to win the big prize. But in this game we do think Chennai are particularly good value against a Delhi side that has a couple of key players out and will have had its confidence battered the other night. I think Delhi will miss Gambhir more than Chennai will miss Dhoni. I'm positive that Chennai is outstanding value and happy to put my money where my mouth is.
BET 2 units Chennai @2.2 or better (2.33 Pinnacle, 2.3 Sportsbet, IAS)
© 2010 Punting Ace.com
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by Punting Ace » Sun Mar 21, 2010 4:59 pm
Indian Premier League
Deccan v Delhi
After starting the IPL in terrific fashion, pre-tournament faves Delhi have suddenly hit the skids with losses in their last two games. We tipped against them the other night as we didn't like the look of them without captain and classy opener Gautam Gambhir.
Funnily enough though, Delhi's batting wasn't the major problem against Chennai. Their bowlers (apart from the generally outstanding Victorian Dirk Nannes) just never threatened and Matthew Hayden and co took them apart. This was always going to be a worry with Delhi - they are one of the weaker bowling sides. However their batting is so strong it normally is able to paper over the cracks.
While Delhi have started to struggle, the reverse has been true for Deccan who have strung together two wins on the trot. Probably the most pleasing aspect of their most recent win was that Andrew Symonds hit a terrific 50. From what we had seen from Symo in domestic cricket for Queensland in recent times, it really looked like he was starting to lose some of his fantastic touch and power. However he was back to something near his blistering best the other night. And that's a great thing for Deccan - because if Symo fires then they also have Adam Gilchrist, Herchelle Gibbs and Rohit Sharma as batting blasters.
Like Delhi, Deccan's bowling isn't fabulous. But they seem to have more variety with the likes of swingmen Chaminda Vaas and RP Singh and Symonds able to perform a multitude of roles with the ball.
The picture for this match looks fairly bleak for Delhi we've gotta say. There is no guarantee they will get Gambhir back with the Delhi coach indicating it is possible he will miss a few matches. There are options with the batting - the struggling AB de Villiers could be sacked to make way for NSW allrounder Moises Henriques. It is also possible that Delhi could call on young South African quick Wayne Parnell. But we are very concerned that too many things are going against Delhi. Their bowling looks paper thin (don't forget they are still without Ashish Nehra) and they have a host of players out of form with the bat. Not only de Villiers but T Dilshan who is a player we really like but who has been unable to do anything this tournament. Delhi still have enough class at this stage to get over the run-of-the-mill teams in this tournament but we don't think they will do it against Deccan.
VVS Laxman (arm injury) could be out for Deccan but if he is the side could actually be strengthened with the inclusion of a power player like Venugopal Rao. Laxman can be more of a hinderance than a help to Deccan.
We expected Deccan to be faves with the bookies here but are astonished to find they are actually the outsiders in most markets. Delhi do have some big guns but Deccan have just as many. Even if Gambhir makes a stunning return from injury for this game we are happy with the price on Deccan. We assess them at 1.75-1.80 and you can get 1.97 so snap that up for sure.
BET 2.5 units Deccan @ 1.97 Cricketbetlive.com (anything over 1.9 is a great bet)
Chennai v Punjab
AFTER Shane Warne's Rajasthan scored an upset win last night, the Kings Punjab XI have the unwanted problem of being the only IPL side not to register a win. Punjab have lost three matches and if they lose to Chennai tonight they might as well just pack up and go home. Mind you, Punjab's fate should not be a surprise to followers of Mr Cricket.
This is some of what we said about them in our pre-tournament preview:
"Punjab will lose more games than they will win and we can't see them being anywhere near the finals. Too many question marks hang over this team for us to seriously entertain them as a betting proposition.''
And so it has proven to be. Mind you their side has been strengthened somewhat by the arrival of young West Indian batsman Adrian Barath. In some ways Barath reminds us of a young Sachin Tendulkar with his wristy play and finesse. Punjab batted Barath at No.6 in his first hit-out the other night and surely he must be shifted up the order tonight as he is a class act. Ravi Bopara is starting to hit some form with the bat and if one or both of Kumar Sangakarra and Yuvraj Singh can finally click then they should have some batting momentum to build towards a win.
Punjab's bowling is a problem because outside of Irfan Pathan and Sreesanth they don't have many weapons. But we are sounding a bit like a broken record here! Chennai is coming into this clash off two straight wins and it was great to see Matthew Hayden and his sawn-off Mongoose bat go off like a firecracker in the last game. Suresh Raina also led the side well and played a sparkling innings with the bat to get his side home after Hayden departed.
Mind you, batting has never been a major worry with Chennai it's been their bowling that's an issue. And they again copped some hammer the other night and it was only Muttiah Muralidaran that stopped them from having to chase an absolutely mammoth total.
We are also getting heartily sick of South African allrounder Justin Kemp failing for Chennai - just when is he going to do something? Chennai will again be without regular captain MS Dhoni for this game. Hayden and Raina got them home the other night and both will probably have to do the same again tonight as Chennai's bowlers have a habit of conceding big totals.
There is no doubt that Chennai should be firm favourites in this game. But despite some good recent wins, this is a side that Mr Cricket still thinks has some question marks over it. We don't really like either side much in this game. We do give Punjab a fighting chance of an upset though - they know if they don't win tonight their season is over. And considering we still have a bit of a knock on Chennai, we are happy to be on the 'dogs in this game for a small bet.
BET 0.75 unit Punjab @ 2.25 or better (2.35 Luxbet)
© 2010 Punting Ace.com
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Deccan v Delhi
After starting the IPL in terrific fashion, pre-tournament faves Delhi have suddenly hit the skids with losses in their last two games. We tipped against them the other night as we didn't like the look of them without captain and classy opener Gautam Gambhir.
Funnily enough though, Delhi's batting wasn't the major problem against Chennai. Their bowlers (apart from the generally outstanding Victorian Dirk Nannes) just never threatened and Matthew Hayden and co took them apart. This was always going to be a worry with Delhi - they are one of the weaker bowling sides. However their batting is so strong it normally is able to paper over the cracks.
While Delhi have started to struggle, the reverse has been true for Deccan who have strung together two wins on the trot. Probably the most pleasing aspect of their most recent win was that Andrew Symonds hit a terrific 50. From what we had seen from Symo in domestic cricket for Queensland in recent times, it really looked like he was starting to lose some of his fantastic touch and power. However he was back to something near his blistering best the other night. And that's a great thing for Deccan - because if Symo fires then they also have Adam Gilchrist, Herchelle Gibbs and Rohit Sharma as batting blasters.
Like Delhi, Deccan's bowling isn't fabulous. But they seem to have more variety with the likes of swingmen Chaminda Vaas and RP Singh and Symonds able to perform a multitude of roles with the ball.
The picture for this match looks fairly bleak for Delhi we've gotta say. There is no guarantee they will get Gambhir back with the Delhi coach indicating it is possible he will miss a few matches. There are options with the batting - the struggling AB de Villiers could be sacked to make way for NSW allrounder Moises Henriques. It is also possible that Delhi could call on young South African quick Wayne Parnell. But we are very concerned that too many things are going against Delhi. Their bowling looks paper thin (don't forget they are still without Ashish Nehra) and they have a host of players out of form with the bat. Not only de Villiers but T Dilshan who is a player we really like but who has been unable to do anything this tournament. Delhi still have enough class at this stage to get over the run-of-the-mill teams in this tournament but we don't think they will do it against Deccan.
VVS Laxman (arm injury) could be out for Deccan but if he is the side could actually be strengthened with the inclusion of a power player like Venugopal Rao. Laxman can be more of a hinderance than a help to Deccan.
We expected Deccan to be faves with the bookies here but are astonished to find they are actually the outsiders in most markets. Delhi do have some big guns but Deccan have just as many. Even if Gambhir makes a stunning return from injury for this game we are happy with the price on Deccan. We assess them at 1.75-1.80 and you can get 1.97 so snap that up for sure.
BET 2.5 units Deccan @ 1.97 Cricketbetlive.com (anything over 1.9 is a great bet)
Chennai v Punjab
AFTER Shane Warne's Rajasthan scored an upset win last night, the Kings Punjab XI have the unwanted problem of being the only IPL side not to register a win. Punjab have lost three matches and if they lose to Chennai tonight they might as well just pack up and go home. Mind you, Punjab's fate should not be a surprise to followers of Mr Cricket.
This is some of what we said about them in our pre-tournament preview:
"Punjab will lose more games than they will win and we can't see them being anywhere near the finals. Too many question marks hang over this team for us to seriously entertain them as a betting proposition.''
And so it has proven to be. Mind you their side has been strengthened somewhat by the arrival of young West Indian batsman Adrian Barath. In some ways Barath reminds us of a young Sachin Tendulkar with his wristy play and finesse. Punjab batted Barath at No.6 in his first hit-out the other night and surely he must be shifted up the order tonight as he is a class act. Ravi Bopara is starting to hit some form with the bat and if one or both of Kumar Sangakarra and Yuvraj Singh can finally click then they should have some batting momentum to build towards a win.
Punjab's bowling is a problem because outside of Irfan Pathan and Sreesanth they don't have many weapons. But we are sounding a bit like a broken record here! Chennai is coming into this clash off two straight wins and it was great to see Matthew Hayden and his sawn-off Mongoose bat go off like a firecracker in the last game. Suresh Raina also led the side well and played a sparkling innings with the bat to get his side home after Hayden departed.
Mind you, batting has never been a major worry with Chennai it's been their bowling that's an issue. And they again copped some hammer the other night and it was only Muttiah Muralidaran that stopped them from having to chase an absolutely mammoth total.
We are also getting heartily sick of South African allrounder Justin Kemp failing for Chennai - just when is he going to do something? Chennai will again be without regular captain MS Dhoni for this game. Hayden and Raina got them home the other night and both will probably have to do the same again tonight as Chennai's bowlers have a habit of conceding big totals.
There is no doubt that Chennai should be firm favourites in this game. But despite some good recent wins, this is a side that Mr Cricket still thinks has some question marks over it. We don't really like either side much in this game. We do give Punjab a fighting chance of an upset though - they know if they don't win tonight their season is over. And considering we still have a bit of a knock on Chennai, we are happy to be on the 'dogs in this game for a small bet.
BET 0.75 unit Punjab @ 2.25 or better (2.35 Luxbet)
© 2010 Punting Ace.com
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by Plastered » Sun Mar 21, 2010 5:18 pm
Okay I reckon I must be going loopy but I could have sworn that MrC's summary yesterday initially covered only the one match?
I took the bet on the over 10.5 wides
I recall thinking that there should be two matches and that a second post might arrive later. But Webmon never went off to alert me to such.
Today now I see that there is coverage of both matches on yesterday's page and of course the one I missed landed a nice winner!
Am I right or am I really going blind and/or loopy?
I took the bet on the over 10.5 wides
I recall thinking that there should be two matches and that a second post might arrive later. But Webmon never went off to alert me to such.
Today now I see that there is coverage of both matches on yesterday's page and of course the one I missed landed a nice winner!
Am I right or am I really going blind and/or loopy?
It's not the strike rate, nor the % POT.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
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by lewster » Sun Mar 21, 2010 5:31 pm
Okay I reckon I must be going loopy but I could have sworn that MrC's summary yesterday initially covered only the one match?
Not going loopy Plastered - the Bangalore bet was not on the original upload triggered by webmon last night. Pity...
Not going loopy Plastered - the Bangalore bet was not on the original upload triggered by webmon last night. Pity...
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by Champ » Sun Mar 21, 2010 5:32 pm
You are right Plastered.
I watched the first match last night and even checked after it to see if the second game review was up. It wasnt so I went to bed.
This morning I again checked in case it had gone up literally 5 minutes prior to the game but there was nothing.
As you, I have just noticed it now when reading tonights game reviews
I watched the first match last night and even checked after it to see if the second game review was up. It wasnt so I went to bed.
This morning I again checked in case it had gone up literally 5 minutes prior to the game but there was nothing.
As you, I have just noticed it now when reading tonights game reviews
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by Plastered » Sun Mar 21, 2010 5:38 pm
thanks guys ... good to see that my eyes and sanity aren't as bad I was starting to think 
PS
actually this is the second time it's happened to me, having missed one of two matches and a winner a few days back but I just put it down to my carelessness in not reading the full post .... but now I'm starting to wonder
PS
actually this is the second time it's happened to me, having missed one of two matches and a winner a few days back but I just put it down to my carelessness in not reading the full post .... but now I'm starting to wonder
Last edited by Plastered on Sun Mar 21, 2010 5:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
It's not the strike rate, nor the % POT.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
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by choccyjutz » Sun Mar 21, 2010 7:08 pm
out to 2.14 for deccan, Big move from 1.95. Does someone know something i dont
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by Plastered » Sun Mar 21, 2010 7:15 pm
choccyjutz wrote:out to 2.14 for deccan, Big move from 1.95. Does someone know something i dont
I doubt it Choccy, cricket prices move all over the place at Betfair ... if you have time always ask for something 10c at least better than the current market .. more often than not you will get matched at the higher price
It's not the strike rate, nor the % POT.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
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by choccyjutz » Sun Mar 21, 2010 7:54 pm
If I have learnt anything this year is the fluctuations in cricket betting, but usually its in play, its just unusual that at the time of posting 1.95 was a good bet and now almost all bookies are above that. Dont get me wrong I love the bet, maybe Im hoping too much after losing the Manly bet today.
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by Plastered » Sun Mar 21, 2010 8:03 pm
choccyjutz wrote:If I have learnt anything this year is the fluctuations in cricket betting, but usually its in play, its just unusual that at the time of posting 1.95 was a good bet and now almost all bookies are above that. Dont get me wrong I love the bet, maybe Im hoping too much after losing the Manly bet today.
yeah, I too am suffering the aftershock of losing on Manly twice in one week when they had the games by the short and curlies, but I've noticed with cricket betting in particular that pre-game moves back and forth are the norm and as I said I almost always get matched when being optimistic if there's enough time before the start of play ... just take a look at the graphs to see what I mean
It's not the strike rate, nor the % POT.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
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