Wimbledon 2009 Women's Draw

While the women’s tournament at Roland Garros was wide open, on grass, the contenders list to win a major title becomes a lot shorter. Winners of the last nine ladies’ singles titles are here (the Williams sisters, Mauresmo and Sharapova), and most of the others are just handy players who rarely make it past the last eight.  Are we destined for another all-Williams final?

The Seeds

1 Dinara Safina – choked in yet another Grand Slam final in Paris and then lost for the second year in a row to Tanasugarn in Rosmalen. Never past R3 here in five main draws, but surely must this time. Will look imposing at some stage, but then the demons will appear. 20

2 Serena Williams – twice a winner, twice runner-up at the All England Club. Never plays a warm-up event, so don’t worry about that. Last year’s semi-finalist Zheng should meet her in R4, while Azarenka, Sharapova or even Petrova await in the quarter-final. Her main worry is her sister who is on the other side. 4

3 Venus Williams – five-time winner here including the last two. Has the harder draw of the siblings, probably having to defeat three girls who have been number one at some stage with Ivanovic, Jankovic and Safina in consecutive rounds before facing Serena. Cue the statisticians to see if any player has ever done that before. 4.5

4 Elena Dementieva – double fault demons starting to reappear, with 16 of them in two matches at Eastbourne. To be fair, it was a bit windy down by the seaside, but given her past, it’s a worry. Semi-finalist last year, her best result, but didn’t beat a seed inside 20 to get there. Of all the Slams she might win, this is the least likely. Complained of being out of shape in Paris. 30

5 Svetlana Kuznetsova – great win in Paris, making it two wins in her last three finals, an excellent figure considering she’d lost 10 of the previous 11! Lost R1 Eastbourne to Wozniak who had an excellent tournament. Toughest test will be Wozniacki R4, don’t see her getting much further than that. 21

6 Jelena Jankovic – has lost the plot of late and is moaning about needing a break. R1 loss to Chakvetadze at Eastbourne not that bad, career record against her is now 3-7. R4 exit here three years in a row, beaten by Myskina, Bartoli and Tanasugarn. Don’t see her ever winning this one. 67

7 Vera Zvonareva – lost R1 Eastbourne to Mauresmo, her first match in two months after ankle injury. Looked fully fit, just rusty. Has two Brit wildcards for training fodder before a tricky assignment against Razzano R3. Fourth round here twice, at her peak she’s good enough to threaten. 67

8 Victoria Azarenka – missed Eastbourne with a hip injury. Betfair market suggests she is fit and ready to go. Can play on all surfaces. In a tricky section, but if fully fit, you’d back her to get through to the QF against Serena. 15

9 Caroline Wozniacki – in the Eastbourne final on Saturday, an event which featured 10 of the 13 women on the tour (although the best-ranked player she had to beat was #18). One concern though is that she needed her coach to tell her what to do (allowed one consultation per set on regular WTA Tour, NOT in Slams) in some of those wins. Junior winner here in 06 and if she’s ever going to challenge in a Slam, this is her chance. Kuznetsova R4 and Safina QF ahead of her, her stronger grass pedigree can see her win both of those before facing Venus. 15

10 Nadia Petrova – was playing really solid tennis at Eastbourne before falling prey to a back spasm in her match against Dushevina. If she was over that, I’d be backing her to go deep. 40 if she was fit but Betfair market suggests otherwise.

11 Agnieszka Radwanska – lost in Eastbourne QF to Razzano in a tight match affected by wind, and I think she may have been more interested in saving herself for Wimbledon. QF here last year and due to push deep into a Slam draw. Has Jankovic and Venus ahead in her quarter. 50

12 Marion Bartoli – must be a doubt to play after retiring in the Eastbourne semi with a quad strain. Finalist here 07, had looked in good form this week. 250

13 Ana Ivanovic – lost R1 at Eastbourne to Petrova who certified the form in the next round. Changed coach again after Roland Garros. Semi-finalist here in 07, only seen brief glimpses of that form this year. 34

14 Dominika Cibulkova – surprise semi-finalist in Paris, but hopeless on grass – 0-4 in senior ranks. Losing to Dechy last week at Rosmalen is not good. 500

15 Flavia Pennetta – beaten by Tanasugarn in the Rosmalen QF this week. Twice made it to R4 here but never to going to threaten in a Slam. 600

16 Jie Zheng – shock semi-finalist last year, beating Ivanovic and Vaidisova before losing to Serena. Played well but was outsmarted by Wozniak at Eastbourne. 250

17 Amelie Mauresmo – didn’t do much wrong losing to Makarova in two extended breakers this week, after beating Zvonareva R1. Her favourite event, it usually takes a pretty good one to beat her here. R3 Pennetta, R4 Safina. 67

18 Samantha Stosur – surprise French Open semi-finalist returning to what should be her favourite surface if you believe the stereotype. Never played that much on grass growing up, so her volleying prowess is more from doubles. Has only won three matches here in six years. Thumped Lisicki then easily beaten by Wozniacki at Eastbourne. 200

19 Na Li – retired with abdominal strain at Eastbourne on Wednesday. Reached final in Birmingham, beating Sharapova along the way. QF here in 07. 200

22 Alize Cornet – totally lost the plot this year, although losing R1 to Razzano at Eastbourne is now not as bad as it looked. 500

23 Aleksandra Wozniak – impressive this week at Eastbourne, beating Kuznetsova, Zheng and Dushevina before losing to Wozniacki in three. Had barely won a senior match on grass before that event. Moves her opponent around well, powerful groundstrokes. Tricky R1 v Schiavone, but her quarter is winnable. 60

24 Maria Sharapova – probably the only top player other than Venus who you could say is best on grass. 10-3 on her recovery from a serious shoulder injury. The Slam format will help her – at regular events, the women play the same length matches but don’t get a day off between each round. Error counts will be her concern as lack of match practice could catch her out. Third fav with most books, too short for me. 16

26 Virginie Razzano – in Eastbourne final, beating four players all ranked above her. Very determined player. Has lost in R1 three times in a row, but her game is in great shape this year, she has already won more matches at the Grand Slams than in any other year. As per Wozniak, she is capable of winning her quarter. 80

Floaters and Notables

Nicole Vaidisova – quarter-finalist here the last two years, but this year has lost R1 of both Slams and lost to a Brit in qualifying at Eastbourne. 1000

Jelena Dokic – back problems, going back to Serbia to bail her estranged father out of jail – whatever story you read, she’s not in the best of shape. But she does save her best for Grand Slams, and has a great record here – four times into R4 or better (SF 2000). If fit, 100.

Yanina Wickmayer – 10-2 on grass this season, and has reached the final of five events (two WTA, three at lower ITF level). Winning becomes a habit; record in 2009 is an impressive 32-14. Finalist at Rosmalen. Tricky first couple of rounds but could go a lot further if she takes care of them. 125

Laura Robson – the great Australian-born hope of British women’s tennis takes a wildcard into the main draw, courtesy of her junior win last year. A lot of juniors don’t go onto better things, but Robson has been one of the youngest players at that level, often playing against girls three years older. Huge crowd support guaranteed but she faces Hantuchova, the first woman to miss out on a seeding (ranked #33) – that’s a tough draw. 1000

Tamarine Tanasugarn – beat Jankovic and Zvonareva to reach quarters here last year, won Rosmalen 08 and in that final Saturday as well, beating Safina both years. Veteran best suited to this surface and can be more than a nuisance to the better players. 250

Magdalena Rybarikova – won Birmingham title, beating Li, Zheng and Mirza. Lost 06 girls’ final here to Wozniacki. Missed Eastbourne due to thigh strain but I’m tipping that was a convenient excuse so she could celebrate her first title. 200

BETS

It’s very hard to go past Venus at Wimbledon. She has been very profitable for me over the years, and even though her draw is slightly tougher than her sister’s, she’s the one I want to be on again. She hasn’t had the injury issues of Serena this year and has another gear when she plays on grass.

To trade, the third quarter of the draw looks the most open – Razzano and A.Wozniak are in form and worth a look.

1.5pts Venus Williams 4.2 and above (@4.7 Betfair post 5% comm.)

0.25pt Razzano and Wozniak 120+ to trade

© 2009 Punting Ace.com