Wimbledon 2007 - Mens Draw

By Scott Ferguson

Ah Wimbledon - another year, another procession in the men's tournament. At least that's the way it has seemed in recent years. In the last 14 years, just five men have been crowned champion. Take out the one-off successes of Hewitt, Ivanisevic and Krajicek, and it's just two men with eleven titles. Roger Federer is chasing five titles in a row, a feat only achieved by Bjorn Borg in the modern era. It's not as if he's had it easy with his main rivals dropping away, it has been a battle of the top two seeds in the final three years running, which is quite rare.

Can anyone beat the great man? Will his lack of a preparation tournament make any difference? Federer pulled out of the Halle lead-up event, which he traditionally wins, after yet again missing out at the one Grand Slam trophy he has yet to conquer. For a player who makes it look so effortless, you'd be surprised if the lack of match practice on the surface would make any difference.

THE CHANCES

1. Federer - how do you beat him on grass? He hasn't lost on the green stuff since R1 Wimbledon back in 2002. Henman, Hewitt and Kiefer are the only players in the draw who have beaten him on grass this century - and they've all been punished for their sins numerous times since. Let's look at his draw: Gabashvili R1 and del Potro R2 - talented but not a threat. Safin R3 - past being a danger I think, and never was on this surface anyway. Tursunov/Haas R4 will provide a better contest but will still be cannon fodder. Blake or Gonzalez should make the rendezvous in the quarter-final but won't trouble him. Roddick appears to be the obvious one for the semi-final but he's proven many a time to be unable to unravel the meticulous brilliance on the Swiss maestro. At 1.45 or 4/9 with Betfair, you could do a lot sillier things than put the house on him.... 1.4

2. Nadal - second favourite because of his all-round brilliance. His grass record stands at 13-6, largely due to his run to the final here last year. He faced being knocked out in straight sets in R2 last year by Kendrick when he won the third-set breaker and fought back to win. After that scare, he didn't drop a set until the final. But he didn't play anyone with a massive serve or ranked better than 16 before the clash with Federer. Very solid and determined to do well on this surface, but to say he's the second-best player on this surface is getting carried away. His worries will be Fish R1 - big server but not
the stamina to win in best-of-five, Soderling or Grosjean R3 - canny players suited by faster surfaces and a lower bounce, Youzhny or Nieminen R4 - solid but of the same ilk as players he dispatched last year, then Berdych or Bjorkman in the quarter-final and Baghdatis/Hewitt/Canas/Djokovic in the semi. I can see him finding trouble in week two. 10

3. Roddick - I think he's already resigned to being a permanent top five fixture in the rankings but he's not going to win another Slam unless the big guns are injured. He won Queen's just a week ago but wasn't impressive to my eye. He played no-one inside the top 25, yet only broke serve seven times in twelve sets. His game is too one-dimensional for mine but he doesn't have anyone to really trouble him before the quarters. Gasquet, Mahut or Murray, assuming he plays, will face him for a berth in the semi if all goes to plan. Easy draw for him, but his price will barely move as the event progresses because his record v Federer is poor. 25

4. Djokovic - has a great record here of 8-2, beaten in five sets by Ancic R4 last year and by the canny Grosjean in R3 after a run through qualifying in 2005. Very tough, very gritty - the ideal player to back when a set or two behind, it's very rare when he loses to a player of lesser ability. He does have potential roadblocks early in his path - namely Karlovic R2 and Hewitt or Canas in R3. Hewitt caned him at the US Open last year, he will be looking forward to taking revenge. If he surpasses both of those challenges as expected, then a berth in the semis or final awaits. 25

7. Berdych - the man to watch this year with this draw. Steadily moving up the rankings, has the game to adapt to all surfaces, and recently won the Halle event in the absence of Federer. Should cruise through the opening rounds before meeting Bjorkman or Robredo in R4. I really think he can clear those hurdles and then really take it to Nadal for a berth in the semi. And he wouldn't be without a chance there either. 40

OTHER SEEDS

5. Gonzalez - exceptionally talented but not a natural on this surface. Taken to the brink by Tipsarevic at Queens and he could meet him early on here. Was working on his volleying by playing doubles there and used the backhand slice a lot as well. Should get through the early rounds easily enough but Ginepri, Falla and Tipsarevic/Kohlschreiber won't be a cakewalk. Drawn to face Blake in the fourth round for a date with Federer. 300

6. Davydenko - a diabolical record here - just one win in the last five years. Faces the talented Korolev in R1, if he wins the Russian battle there, then I'd expect Guccione to blow him away in R2. 1000

8. Murray - will he or won't he? Out with a severe wrist injury for five weeks, he can't be expected to make a challenge here. This isn't the Grand Slam he's going to win (first) in his career - he's far better suited in New York and as soon as the media work that out, the better. Lapentti, Tsonga/Benneteau, Moya/Henman lay ahead in his first week - nothing too hard if his wrist is right. But lack of match practice will ultimately cost him. 400

9. Blake - a rotten record here considering his talent. R3 last year was his best result in six visits. Can win a few rounds if his mind is on the job, but don't expect him to be chasing silverware. 800

10. Baghdatis - semi-finalist last year and reached the final in Halle just a week ago. Nice draw, would be disappointed if he wasn't in the quarters. 125

11. Robredo - Bjorkman to send him home in R3. 1000

12. Gasquet - the best of the French brigade - there are 15 of them in the main draw, a big endorsement of the French system. Enjoys the grass, with two Nottingham titles to his name, and has an adaptable game to suit the surface. His toughest task may be to get past Clement or Mahut in R2, fellow countrymen in great form over the past fortnight. If Murray isn't fit and firing, then I'd expect to see him facing Roddick in the quarters. 150

13. Haas - not seen for six weeks since retiring in Rome. Could go early if he turns up, if not Tursunov in R3 should have his measure. 1000

14. Youzhny - crafty enough to be a danger on the grass. Suffered a back injury in Halle and gave a walkover to Berdych. With such an emphasis on serving, he'll need to be 100% right to get to the first weekend. 800

15. Ljubicic - was fifth seed last year, his ranking is now starting to fall as the toil of playing so many events takes effect. Reached the final in s'Hertogenbosch but that is a weak event. So many candidates to take him out in the first week.... 1000

16. Hewitt - claims he still has a chance of beating Federer but most of us think he's in la-la-land. Easy opening matches but then faces Canas and Djokovic - both the gritty type of players who match his style, and are probably better at it now. If at his absolute best then he can reach the final, but I can't see it. 100

OTHER MENTIONS (in draw order)

21. Tursunov - hard-courter who has looked good on grass in recent weeks. Federer awaits in R4. 500

q. Mahut - held a match point in the Queen's final against Roddick, before losing in a third set tie-break. Loves the grass, serves and volleys well, if he kept that form up for another fortnight, he could meet Roddick again in the quarters. Probably asking a bit much but stranger things have happened. 250

WC. Tsonga - another Frenchman playing well on the grass. Won the Surbiton challenger beating Karlovic and Guccione, and then took out Hewitt at Queen's. Might squeeze in a couple of wins here. 800

Guccione - massive lefty serve, can go a few rounds. 800

23. Nalbandian - finalist here in 2002 with a couple of fourth round appearances since. Nothing much to get excited about recently. 1000

22. Canas - solid on all surfaces, Hewitt in round 3 will be his first acid test, followed by Djokovic. Not sure he can get past both of them. 500

Karlovic - massive serve, won the Nottingham event on a mix of grass and indoor surfaces. Very tricky early rounds - Santoro, Kiefer and then Djokovic just in the first week. His big serve can only get him so far. 500

19. Bjorkman - amazing endurance to still be seeded at age 35, and ten years after he reached his career-best ranking of 4. It took Federer to beat him in the semis here last year and was only beaten in Nottingham this week when they took the matches indoors to beat the rain. You'd be mad not to have something on him at 500+ on Betfair. 250

THE BETS

Let's face it, who is going to beat Federer? I can't recommend lumping on at 2/5 or shorter, so look for who's going to meet him in the final. I think Nadal is worth opposing in the without Federer market, with Berdych, Djokovic and Bjorkman the dangers.

LAY Nadal in the without Federer market at around 3.5.

BACK Berdych for the title at 50 and above.

BACK Bjorkman for the title at 500 and above for small change. It's worth it for a trade if he reaches the second week again.

BACK Djokovic for the title at 34 and above.

© 2007 Punting Ace.com