1 - Federer - becoming a father has not diminished his drive to win one iota. If you can fly your entourage around on a private jet, why should it? He returned in Montreal after taking time off for the birth of his twins, and the result appears to be he has even more focus on the big titles. Looked to be flying in Montreal before bizarrely capitulating from 5-1 in the third against Tsonga (matched for £300k at 1.01). Struck back with a win in Cincinnati. On the right side of the draw, Djokovic or Roddick in the semi, and Rafa/del Potro/Murray in the final. Has missed only one final in the last 17 Slams. Do you back him now at 2.2 or hope he meets Murray in the final and take 1.7? 2.25

2 - Murray - we backed him here last year and got a great run for our money. Loves it here, revels in the conditions and can beat every player in the draw. He'll need to though, the draw hasn't done him any favours - Cilic R4, del Potro QF, Nadal/Tsonga SF. Unders at the current price. 5

3 - Nadal - ongoing knee problems have seen him drop to #3 and hardcourts over five sets won't help, but he will have the benefit of extra recovery time to counter that. Not at his incredible best as yet, but a cushy draw might see him peak when it matters. This is the only major not in his set. Faces Gasquet in R1 which would normally be tricky but the Frenchman is just returning from his drug ban which was later dropped. He lost in qualifying at New Haven last wk. Could face Monfils R4, Tsonga QF before Murray or del Potro. Will need to be at his best by the weekend. A male left-hander hasn't won here for a long time... 10

4 - Djokovic - now hitting his straps after equipment change issues earlier in the year. Until that second Slam is under his belt, he's going to be the next candidate for one-Slam wonder. R4 lines up Kohlschreiber or Stepanek, QF Verdasco or Roddick (2-4 record against him) before semi with Federer. Finalist in Cincinnati, last two trips here have seen him in the final and the semis, beaten by Federer both times. 20

5 - Roddick - beaten by del Potro in Washington and Montreal then squeezed out by Querrey in a pair of breakers in Cincinnati. This has been his best season since 2004, with 14 wins already at the Slams. He has Djokovic's measure this year with three wins (QF), but Federer in the semi is a tough ask, although he has gone close to him three times this year. He's a chance. 13

6 - Del Potro - ready to push for a major title. Last year he was in tears after losing to Murray in the quarters (check) to end a 19-match winning streak, this year he has exorcised his demons by beating all of the top four at some stage. This is probably his best shot at a Slam, being more naturally suited to DecoTurf hardcourts than clay. Has a swag of injured/mentally tired players in the early rounds, then Murray in the quarters. Their last clash was in the Montreal final which was a great match until JdP collapsed in a heap in the final set, having been dealt a very bad schedule and felt the effects of it. A real shot. 10

7 - Tsonga - had that amazing win against Federer in Montreal, then got beaten the next week by Guccione. That sums up Mr Entertainment. When he puts it all together, he can beat anyone. Conversely, when it's not working he can lose to anyone. Should make the second week at least. 80

8 - Davydenko - lost to Querrey at New Haven and was treated for a wrist injury during the match. Semi-finalist here 06, 07, but has only made one Slam QF since. Flat-track bully now, just picks up minor prizes, best result would facing Federer in QF. 200

9 - Simon - suffers from chronic tendonitis in his knees, like Nadal and Gonzalez. Struggles to put a string of wins together and with Ferrero in R3 (his conqueror at Wimbledon) and del Potro in R4, he won't be seeing the deep end. 200

10 - Verdasco - the five sets he lost in the recent Masters Series events were all tie-breaks. So close to reaching the final in Melbourne, the rest of the Tour have had a chance to adjust to his new style now, but he's in a quarter which is winnable if at his peak. 125

11 - Gonzalez - retired in Cincinnati with knee tendonitis which has troubled him all year. Days off in between matches might help his cause, but can't see him being there at the end - his hardcourt results this year have suffered accordingly. 200

12 - Soderling - has had an elbow problem for the last month, playing just three matches on the North American swing. Had match points against Hewitt in Cincinnati, only match since retiring with the injury. Good enough to mix it with the best if fully fit, 200

13 - Monfils - injury-plagued all season and has only beaten Safin on the hardcourt swing. Rest will have helped but with an opponent like Chardy in R1, I'd prefer to see match fitness. 300

14 - Robredo - has lost to Acasuso, Chardy and Petzschner in recent weeks. No chance. 1000

15 - Stepanek - poor lead-up form after a knee injury a month ago. Not better than R4 of a Slam this year. 1000

16 - Cilic - just one win in his last three tournaments. R3 here last year, only appearance in main draw. 300

17 - Berdych - didn't beat much to make dual QF appearances in Washington and Cincinnati. Only ever reached QF once in 24 Grand Slam main draws. 500

18 - Ferrer - took a set off Federer in Cincinnati, had retired the previous week in Montreal with knee tendonitis. Was fourth seed here last year, has fallen right away since, body telling him to slow down and not past R3 of any Slam. 500

19 - Wawrinka - R4 here past two years, has to beat Cilic R3 to achieve that, won't get past Murray R4. 500

20 - Haas - troubled by hand blisters in Montreal. Form not the best in recent weeks, but can pull a big effort out of the bag at Slams, as seen by SF performance at Wimbledon and taking Federer to five sets in Paris. 250

21 - Blake - badly out of form due to injury problems. 1000

22 - Querrey - winner of the US Open Series, accruing the most prizemoney in the North American lead-up events. 19-5 since Wimbledon and still going at New Haven. 500

31 - Hewitt - good wins over Soderling and Querrey in Cincinnati, before losing to Federer again, who he is likely to meet in R3. 400


BETS

Federer is the obvious benchmark but I think it's time for someone else to emerge here. Murray had his chance here last year, and now gets the tough draw. He's under the odds. With a similar draw but a much better price is del Potro. There is very little between the Brit and the Argentine now, so take the value.

1pt del Potro 10.0 or better (@14.77 Betfair post 5% comm.)