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Sports
Betting Portfolio Management
By Matt Elliott
Disclaimer - this article
is not meant to be taken as offering financial advice. The
author is not a qualified financial advisor and as such, cannot
give such advice. The author advises you to seek independent
advice from a qualified advisor before committing any funds.
The subject of financial investment
is such a wide and varied area. We all know (or should know),
that investing surplus funds is a sound idea; nothing new
there. If you make the decision to invest, what investment
options do you have?
1. Property - unit, house,
holiday house, commercial property, a managed property investment
fund etc.
2. Shares - stock options, different stock investment
sectors such as small capitalisation mining companies, international
or local share funds etc.
3. Fixed Interest - bonds, convertible notes, fixed
deposits etc
The above are your major investments
categories in which you may be looking to invest.
These are the 'traditional' type
of investments however there are other investment areas which
are just as, or more profitable than your main 'stable' of
investment options. These alternative investment options include
tree crops, vintage cars, wines, art, other collectables and
also sports betting and horse racing!
As the majority of people do
not understand the betting industry, they generally scoff
at the idea of sports/horse race betting as a legitimate investment
option. That is because they have only been exposed to one
side of the business, the entertainment side. Of course gambling
is generally painted in an ordinary light in the media where
it is linked to family break downs and suicides. The perception
among those who haven't been enlightened is that if you bet
often, you must have a gambling problem!
"If
the truth be known many who play the stockmarket are the biggest
gamblers around."
They are never labelled gamblers,
nor do they believe that they are gambling because their gambling
vehicle is not horses but shares in companies. They like to
think of their random and uneducated decisions as being an
'investment' rather than a bet. In this light, it is OK to
lose money because 'it is an investment'. Many are simply
betting on the price of a share just the same as an uneducated
sports bettor who makes a decision on the likely outcome of
a game.
The purpose of this article is
to show that gambling can be a serious and profitable business
as well as a fun pastime. I decided to write this article
after speaking with a good mate of mine who happens to be
financial advisor to 'high net worth' clients. You may be
surprised and interested to note that he sees sports betting
as playing a very important role in his investment portfolio.
He knows very little about sports but he sees it as a very
serious business and he follows our selections 'to the letter'.
(Not that he would tell his clients that he invests in sport
as I am sure they just wouldn't 'get it'.)
The similarities between the
more 'traditional' type investments and gambling are many.
We are all playing the same game, which is to . . .
beat the
market and optimize our total wealth.
Financial markets such as the
stockmarket are generally efficient and represent the general
view of the aggregate of those that invest into the market.
Investing in any financial market (including the sports betting
market) raises financial questions involving decision making
under uncertainty. Many of those that play such markets simply
do not understand just what they are up against.
People go to financial advisors
for advice on how to best invest their money. They are thought
to be the experts. They have been to University and have completed
courses through the Australian Securities Institute to become
an advisor. It is the same with other specialised services,
such as doctors and solicitors. People recognise the specialised
knowledge that these guys have and understand the value of
paying such experts for their opinions.
I believe the reason to why
more aren't successful in gambling is that the majority of
punters have no idea what they are up against. They believe
that they can beat the game with no specific specialised knowledge.
There is a price you have to pay to gain the knowledge and
experience required to become successful.
This is very similar for both
traditional investment advisors and also in the gambling field.
Some advisors are better than others, as are some investments
and some investment funds are better than others. Some investment
funds make excellent returns for their clients however, on
the other hand, the majority can't even beat the average based
on the returns of the 'All Ords' index!
I can see myself starting to
get off track here.
Professional gambling is not
for everyone, however I truly believe that it is within reach
of everyone. Now there are two ways in which you can make
a living out of gambling.
1. You can spend years studying
mathematics and learn the ins and the outs of your chosen
betting field to hopefully build the skills necessary to make
consistent profits
2. You can pay those that have trodden the path above for
their specialised knowledge and skill and then focus your
attention on becoming an astute gambling portfolio manager.
Both methods will provide very
similar betting results. Gambling is like any other profession.
You simply cannot become successful without truly applying
yourself and spending the time (and the money), to learn and
become proficient. (Contrary to what most 'retail' punters
would suggest). It is no different to a financial advisor
who studies commerce at university and then completes a Diploma
of Financial Markets at the Securities Institute. They have
paid the necessary price (both in time and money), to obtain
the required information to pursue a career in their chosen
field of endeavour.
The thing with sports/horse racing
is that punters expect wealth and success to come to them
while they are doing nothing to improve their skills. I believe
this is largely due to the fact that they do not understand
what they are up against and how tough it is for your average
casual punter these days to turn a profit.
Anyway, back to the purpose of
this article. It is well and truly possible for anyone to
become a successful and highly profitable gambler.
As we saw above, there are two
choices that you could make. One requires years of study to
develop the required specialised knowledge to allow you to
become successful; the second option can be thought of as
being the easier path.
Just as you may well pay a financial
advisor for their advice, you have the option to pay an expert
in gambling for their betting advice. Doing so will leave
you as purely a manager of your investments.
If you have ever been to a financial
advisor, you will realise that they love their pie charts
and love to talk about diversification and asset allocation.
They split your total investment wealth up into different
areas with the aim of reducing risk.
Well consider doing something
similar with gambling. There are a number of excellent sports/racing
services which show high returns and have been showing high
returns for a good period. You may like to build a portfolio
of gambling investment options based around the good services.
How you allocate your resources for the different services
you may use is up to you. For example your gambling portfolio
may comprise of two horse racing approaches, two tennis approaches,
one AFL, one NRL and one Super12's for example.
After sourcing your betting information
from a service, you have the task of managing your portfolio
to maximise the rate of growth of your bank and to minimise
your risk.
For those that take the time to look at the possibilities
of sports betting investment, you can understand why it makes
a lot of sense from an investment angle. You invest your money
for a whole year in say the stockmarket hoping for a standard
10% return. You can make that on every single dollar that
you outlay in some sports!
Investing in a conservative manner
can easily see you double your original investment capital
within one year. Returns unheard of in other 'traditional'
methods of investment and yet contrary to what most believe
it is unbelievably safe if you find a reliable source to purchase
your advice from.
In sports betting you can use
mathematics to calculate very accurately worst case scenarios
and no, that is not generally a total loss of starting capital.
We have a simulation program available on the website which
you can access from the following link Punting
Ace Simulation Program which
will give you an excellent idea of what you can expect to
achieve based on certain criteria.
We also have programs which will
simulate your projected performance based on certain bankroll
settings. To simulate a year of our tennis package, select
the following link Punting
Ace Tennis Simulation or to simulate a year of our
AFL betting package, select the following link Punting
Ace AFL Simulation.
Summary
If you are not happy "putting
all your eggs in one basket", why not consider sports
betting as an "alternative investment" similar to
tree crop investments or hedge funds. Any prudent financial
planner will explain to you the benefits of diversifying across
a number of different markets and investment products. Indeed,
investment products such as options and instalment warrants
(and to some extent margin lending), are designed to "enhance"
your overall portfolio returns and as such, traditional investment
advisers may allocate a "percentage" of your overall
portfolio to these products.
With risk adjusted returns far
in excess of "main stream" investment products,
why wouldn't you apply a percentage of your portfolio to sports
betting? As your financial adviser will agree, sports betting
is not correlated with any main stream investment markets,
and indeed given the disappointing recent performance of the
stock market (with the exception of last years return of approx
25%) the current investment markets are awash with products
that are non-correlated to the stockmarket. For example, hedge
funds, tree investments, caravan park property trusts and
chicken farms (yes that last one is actually true). Therefore
sports betting should at least be considered as part of a
prudent "diversified" investment portfolio.
Sport Betting
Investment Steps
1. Decide from day one that you
have the discipline to follow your plan through and that you
will operate in a business like fashion and will keep records
and the like.
2. Find a reputable information provider for your selections.
Remember the goal is for you to be only the portfolio manager.
You don't want to have to come up with the selections; leave
that to those that have proven track records and are experts
in their fields.
3. Decide on how you will divide up your total starting capital
over the information provider(s)/sport(s) which you have gathered.
4. Now follow through with your plan setting aside time for
constant reflection and self evaluation in an attempt to maximise
your returns whilst minimising your risk.
Disclaimer - this article is not meant
to be taken as offering financial advice. The author is not
a qualified financial advisor and as such, cannot give such
advice. We advise you to seek independent advice from a qualified
advisor before committing any funds.
This article is protected
by international Copyright © Elk Publications Pty Ltd
February 2005 Please contact
if you wish to reproduce this article elsewhere.
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