Australian Open 2010 Women's Draw

The women's tournament is as open as it has been in years, the circuit looked a little flat with Dinara Safina winning a swag of regular WTA events but falling short at the Slams where it was often Serena cleaning up - at least when she kept her mouth shut. She is very lucky to not have been banned from all Slams for a year, but of course that would hurt the other tournaments, so she got off lightly. As for her claim that she was given a harsher sentence than the bad boys of the 90s, somebody should teach her about inflation - her penalty was a pittance in comparison.

The return of the Belgians gives a real edge to this event. Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin genuinely mean business and put plenty of depth in the draw. When you consider others like Sharapova who have dropped down the rankings, there will be no easy ride for the top seeds. Tournament organisers had the option of jiggling the seedings but took the soft option and left it.

1. Serena Williams - has won this event the last four odd years, but hasn't passed the quarters in other years. Of course it's a load of cobblers as a trend, but it does mean her condition varies regularly. This year she is nursing injuries to her left knee, left ankle and right hamstring. Lay her at your peril but I can't have her this time. 7

2. Dinara Safina - the pressure of being at the top without a major title has gotten to her, it's absurd that she is 33/1 on Betfair to win this but that's the reality of it. Add a back problem through the off-season and very scratchy form in Sydney and the players on her side of the draw won't be shaking in their boots. 40

3. Svetlana Kuznetsova - didn't enjoy the extreme heat in Sydney straight after coming from Moscow. Apparently she wasn't allowed to play Brisbane as punishment for a late withdrawal from an event in 2009, so she could be a little underdone. Pavlyuchenkova R2 and Rezai R3 have the ability to test her if she's not at her best. 40

4. Caroline Wozniacki - US Open finalist who fights hard when under the pump. At her best on hardcourts, but her New York result was the first time she had passed through the fourth round. Gave herself no preparation time in Sydney, arriving just the day before into vicious heat. Now a protected seed with a comfortable draw, great chance if she's ready. 15

5. Elena Dementieva - probably the best-conditioned athlete on the women's circuit, just imagine how many events she could have won with a decent serve. Easily beat Serena in Sydney but don't get too excited about that, Serena rarely cares about finals the week before a Slam even when she is fit. Semi-finalist here last year, her best performance in Melbourne by a long way. She copped the short straw - Henin in R2. 20

6. Venus Williams - has only played a couple of exhibitions so far this year, with mixed results. Poor record here, having only reached the final eight just once since reaching the final in 2003. I just can't see her being in the shape she needs to be to win. 25

7. Victoria Azarenka - had Serena on toast here last year before succumbing to the heat. She has also just replaced her coach, hopefully the new one will be working very hard on conditioning for the harsh Aussie sun. If she turns up in the form of last year, then the price available is huge. 20

8. Jelena Jankovic - 2009 was ruined for her by an ill-fated decision to put on a lot more muscle, in the hope that it delivered more power on the court. Instead, it hampered her best asset, her court coverage and she floundered for much of the year. This year they've decided to change her service action, so expect a few issues. Her form was looking better towards the end of the season, but she still has that Grand Slam duck to break. Lost R1 Sydney in baking heat, her only match of the year so far. Soft section of the draw, rough hope. 50

9. Vera Zvonareva - another Russian who is dominant in minor events but hasn't cracked the big time yet. Is it just a mental thing for all the Russian girls? Struggling with an ankle injury which has flared up after surgery late last year. 500

10. Agnieszka Radwanska - looked awful in Sydney against Safina and it was revealed she and her sister had both picked up a virus upon arriving in Australia. With a limited preparation in the first place, it's hard to regain lost ground on fitness. 150

11. Marion Bartoli - got to Melbourne early to acclimatise and avoided tournaments. Being a little on the chunky side, some hard training in the heat should be good preparation for her. In that soft bottom quarter, she could pick that off if at her peak. 150

12. Flavia Pennetta - a very solid season in lesser events propelled her to her highest ranking. I think she has reached the peak of her ability, going deep in a Slam would surprise me. 150

13. Sam Stosur - tournament organisers and Channel 7 (host broadcaster) will be praying for a big run from Stosur. In theory, everything is in place for her - the right surface, home advantage, she will be used to preparing at this time of year etc, but unless there's another big step forward, she will need a lot of luck to go deep. Pressure for a home winner isn't quite as bad as at Wimbledon, but it's not far off. There hasn't been an Aussie winner for over 25 years, and if Hewitt and Rafter weren't capable of doing it at their peaks, then a player yet to crack the top 10 faces an even mightier task. 200

14. Maria Sharapova - this season looms as a make-or-break year for the Queen of the Shriekers. Her shoulder has now had long enough to recover, can she get back to her absolute best? Beat Venus, Wozniacki and Zheng in Asian exhibitions before resting up for Melbourne. Missed last year, won here 08, runner-up 07. In a nice section of the draw with some soft seeds, a chance at her best. 10

15. Kim Clijsters - tournament favourite after her win over Henin in Brisbane and the fitness doubts over the top seed. It's easy to get caught up in the hype after her US Open win but remember she did have luck with the draw falling away, and it was only the second Slam title she has collected. Four losses in final and seven losses in the semis at the big events showed a weakness in her game which may or may not still be there. Faces a qualifier first up and has a tricky draw, including Henin in the quarters. Poor value at the price. 5.5

20. Ana Ivanovic - since winning the French Open of 2008, she has gone backwards. A revolving door of coaches, boyfriends, modelling shoots and endorsements have left her game floundering, right at the stage she could have been taking the next step and becoming a great. Hard to see her being a genuine threat again until she takes a step back from the media spotlight. Faces a qualifier R1 which may not be a good thing. 100

21. Sabine Lisicki - a tremendous talent who would be firmly in the top 10 by now if not for a few injuries. Still connected with the Bollettieri Academy, and has been training hard with them during the off-season. Not the greatest start to the year, with losses to Azarenka and Shvedova plagued by unforced errors. Her aggressive style means she either clips the lines or misses them by a few cm and self-destructs. 100

26. Aravane Rezai - impressive Frenchwoman who finished 2009 in style, winning the Tournament of Champions in Bali, which was actually the WTA B Grade final. She's an aggressive player who usually doesn't let up on her opponents, but can be her downfall on a windy day. Has shown big improvement in the past couple of years, I think there is still more to come from her. Choked against Serena last week in Sydney when leading 6-3 5-2, but will be better for the experience. 80

Floaters:

Justine Henin - the one nobody wanted to be drawn near. She's back and she's playing well. Had a minor upper leg strain in the Brisbane final but said to be over that now. May have to beat Dementieva, Dokic, Pennetta, Clijsters/Rezai/Kuznetsova and Sharapova/Safina just to get to the final. If she was seeded and playing regularly, you wouldn't be too worried. But after one tournament back, that's a tough task. 7

Yanina Wickmayer - she should be 16th seed but because of a farcical doping case against her which was overturned on appeal, she had to go through qualies. Assuming she makes it through the final stage, she will be a very dangerous floater, especially for seeds like Clijsters, Ivanovic or Stosur who have all drawn qualifiers in R1. This girl is good, she'll be in the top 10 this year, although I doubt she'll be quite good enough to win a Slam. 200

Jelena Dokic - quarter-finalist here last year but has done very little since. Was appalling in Hobart and needs a miracle to reach the second week this time. Horrible draw anyway even if she was ready. 1000

The Bets:

This is hard - the favourites appear too short, several of the others haven't had much preparation or have shown their flaws at this level. I backed Azarenka a fortnight ago and have gone in again after seeing the draw. There are a couple of others in there who might just have a big run at odds as well - Bartoli and Wozniacki who I'd like to see in action first.

1pt Azarenka at 20 or better (32.35 Betfair, post 5% comm.)

© 2010 Punting Ace.com