Australian Open 2009 Men's Draw

The king has been deposed, the reigning champion oddly chose to take the cash and change racquets, a Brit is second favourite to win a Slam title and we have the most open market here in years. We all know the history of this event dishing up first-time winners or finalists, do we go for a shock again, or will undeniable class prevail?

Seeds: Men

1. Rafael Nadal (ESP) top ranked with Grand Slam titles to his name, but yet to reach a final in the hardcourt events. Reached the semi here last year but didn't beat anyone inside the top 25 to get there. Hardcourt doesn't suit him his knees have chronic problems already, his slices and spins aren't as effective as on the natural surfaces and he can get blown away by the big guns such as Gonzalez and Tsonga (conquerors here in 07 and 08), Roddick or even Monfils (who destroyed him in Doha 10 days ago). Then you have Djokovic and Murray , both with multiple hardcourt victories over him. Gasquet, Monfils and Simon all dangers to him before a semi with Murray. Can't have him. 10

2. Roger Federer (SUI) man on a mission this year, he won't be liking the announcer saying 'second seed'. Last year's loss to Djokovic in the semi is his only non-appearance in the last 14 Slam finals, and we later learned he had a light form of glandular fever at the time. Has played three weeks in a row leading in, the first time he has ever done that. Two losses to Murray are a little concerning, but there's a gear left for the Slams and he can only face the flying Scot in the final here. His draw looks comfortable until del Potro (leads h2h 3-0) in the quarters, followed by Djokovic (7-2) and probably Murray (2-6). The one to beat. 3.5

3. Novak Djokovic (SRB) took his foot off the pedal in the off-season and changed racquet supplier. Consequently turned up in Brisbane and got rolled by Gulbis. Top seed again in Sydney, thumped Mathieu, scraped by Ancic giving up a lot of break points and then lost to Nieminen in the semi. Needs to lift to repeat last year's win and has a decent enough draw. Will face Mathieu or Nieminen in R3 and Roddick or Nalbandian in the quarters. Can do it and probably the value of the top four. Would prefer to back him in week two though, to make sure all the cobwebs are gone. 9

4. Andy Murray (GBR) great start to the year with eight wins on the trot in Abu Dhabi and Doha, including Nadal, Federer (twice) and Roddick, but you don't win Slam trophies at the start of January. He's 31-3 since the Olympics. Had a taste in New York, now he is ready to win one and Melbourne has a reputation for first-time winners. Nice draw with Nishikori in R3, Stepanek/Verdasco R4 and maybe Tsonga in the quarters. If the latter is unfit, his price drops even more. Great chance to win, but not much value at the odds available. 4.5

5. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) shocked everyone with a brilliant run here last year, falling only in the final to Djokovic. He couldn't miss last year and his stamina and agility around the court for a big bloke are remarkable. But his body is rarely in the shape it was last year. Tsonga is a brittle guy with more ailments than your average nursing home. He's on everyone's radar now and a crock. Sit back and watch a couple of matches before considering a bet. 40

6. Gilles Simon (FRA) big mover last year who managed to come back from 1.01 down (a set and a break) against both Federer and Nadal during the year. Never past the third round in any of the Slams, that's something he has to rectify immediately if he is to be a genuine top 10 player. Like Tsonga, he's now on the radar and that means no more surprise results. First week should be a breeze for him but Monfils in R4 will be the start of the tough stuff. Can't see this guy going forward again this year. 100

7. Andy Roddick (USA) worst seeding here since 03 which means he's now out of the spotlight, something he seems more than happy with. Has a new coach in Larry Stefanki who succeeded in taking Fernando Gonzalez to the final here in 06, and has focused on improving his returning. Finalist in Doha, beating Monfils and losing to Murray. Has Nalbandian and Djokovic in his quarter, players he is capable of beating at his very best. I'm not a huge fan of this guy but it's not a million to one he reaches the final. Definite chance to reach the semis. 60

8. Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) huge mover last year, from outside the top 50 to a top 10 berth. Hardcourts are his preference, not clay, so he has a genuine chance. Broke down in tears after losing to Murray at the US Open. A bit soft, yes, but it shows his desire and belief in his talent. Had issues with infected toenails late last year, but looked in great form winning Auckland last week. In Federer's quarter, and he'll start beating him in the near future too. Might be a year too early for him, but a big run won't surprise me. Note he has retired both times he has lost here. 34

9. James Blake (USA) QF appearance here last year equaled his best ever Slam result. Just doesn't threaten in five sets. Gulbis in R3 will test him, otherwise Murray to send him home in the quarters (assuming Tsonga injured). 400

10. David Nalbandian (ARG) probably his best Slam results here (03-06 at least QF) and won Sydney last week so has arrived in great shape. Always a chance on hardcourt but never long between injuries with chronic knee problems, which he manages fairly well. Has Roddick R4, Djokovic QF before Federer. Can't see him breaking through for a win at 27 but can make waves. 40

11. David Ferrer (ESP) super-fit Spanish rabbit without many weapons. Quarter-finalist last year without beating anyone special. Has two very talented players in Cilic (R3) and del Potro (R4) in his immediate path he won't get past both of them. 500

12. Gael Monfils (FRA) - was awesome in beating Nadal in straight sets in Doha recently. Bit of a letdown to then lose to Roddick, but had enough chances. Now under the tutelage of Roger Rasheed who should hopefully install a bit more mental toughness in him. Missed this event last year so lots of points up for grabs for him. Semi-finalist in Paris, then missed Wimbledon and round of 16 at the US Open. He could be this year's shock finalist. 40

13. Fernando Gonzalez (CHI) finalist here in 07 but hasn't done anything special since. Has lost four of his last five matches, not an appealing formline. Very tough game against Hewitt first-up. 500

14. Fernando Verdasco (ESP) the squeeze of Ana Ivanovic who is in far better form at the moment. 6-2 since he has been in Aus, losing only to Stepanek (Brisbane final where he missed many break point chances) and to Federer (at Kooyong in final set breaker). That's solid form, but he has Stepanek again in R3 followed by Murray. Good enough to go a long way should there be a lucky break with the draw. 250

15. Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) not up to these on hardcourt, will probably go at the hands of Berdych in R3. 1000

16. Robin Soderling (SWE) indoor specialist who beat the average players then claimed by seeds in Brisbane and Auckland respectively. Has an embarrassing record of 14-20 at Slams, never past R3. Faces Baghdatis R2 if fit, and Fish R3. No chance over five sets in searing heat. 1000

17. Nicolas Almagro (ESP) going home R3 at the hands of Monfils, not a threat away from dirt. 1000

18. Igor Andreev (RUS) talented but unreliable. Tough match v Gulbis R2. 500

19. Marin Cilic (CRO) super-talented, big mover last year after reaching R4 here. Not a good lead-up losing to Baghdatis and Verdasco at Kooyong. Needs to lift markedly to be a threat. 500

20. Tomas Berdych (CZE) talented but inconsistent. Soft defeats in Brisbane and Sydney, never past R4 of a Slam (has done that here past two years). Would meet Federer at that stage this time. 800

21. Tommy Robredo (ESP) - quarter-finalist here two years ago but unlikely to ever repeat that. 800

22. Radek Stepanek (CZE) impressive in Brisbane, beating three seeds and each time coming from a set down to claim the title (note stamina for in-running betting). Fatigued and virus-stricken when lost first match in Sydney, but had plenty of time to recover. Likely to meet Verdasco again in R3 but then face the might of Murray who won't put up with his boorish antics. 400

23. Mardy Fish (USA) lost R1 in Brisbane and Sydney, albeit in tight ones. Could squeeze into week two if on his game. 600

24. Richard Gasquet (FRA) better than this ranking and eager to get back into the top 10. Good lead-in form, beaten in semis at each event (Brisbane by Stepanek, Sydney by Nalbandian who holds 7-0 record over him). R4 here past two years and that will pit him against Nadal assuming he gets by Hewitt or Gonzalez first. New coach working on his mental strength, he is good enough to push for the title if absolutely everything goes right. 67

25. Ivo Karlovic (CRO) more than doubled his win tally here last year by reaching R3. Grand Slam record is simply embarrassing. If he doesn't bomb out to an unknown in R1, you can be pretty certain he'll go home in the next round. 5000

26. Marat Safin (RUS) on his farewell tour. Can he do an Agassi or a Sampras and win Slams in his final year on the tour? With a win and two more final appearances here, this is his favourite event, so if he's ever going to perform a resurrection, this is the place. Hopefully his black eyes from a bar fight in Moscow will have gone for the PR photos by finals day. He'll need to be over his shoulder soreness (withdrew from Kooyong) and get past Federer in R3 though. Never say never with Marat. 80

27. Feliciano Lopez (ESP) has won one tournament in his life, never past R3 here and faces a tricky big-server in R1. Nope. 1000

28. Paul-Henri Mathieu (FRA) looked fantastic beating Nishikori in Brisbane then got pumped by Verdasco. Similar pasting by Djokovic in Sydney as well. Faces Nieminen in R1 and could be saying au revoir very early. 600

29. Dmitry Tursunov (RUS) lost R1 Doha and Sydney, plays a qualifier on a roll. Not good enough anyway. 1000

30. Rainer Schuettler (GER) left wrist injury forced him out of the semi in Chennai followed by last week's event. Wrist injuries rarely recover quickly and Dudi Sela in R1 will be ready to exploit that, assuming the Israeli doesn't have to deal with protesters as Shahar Peer did last week in Auckland. 1000

31. Jurgen Melzer (AUT) could you ever imagine a Grand Slam champion named Jurgen? Thought not 1000

32. Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) was taking painkillers for shoulder soreness in Auckland and eventually had to pull out when the matches were on consecutive days. Can avoid that here, but surely repeated jabs can't be good forever. Tough early draw Querrey, Ferrero then Roddick which will require his serving shoulder to be at 100%. 800

Dangerous Floaters:

Lleyton Hewitt no chance of winning but Aussie tennis really needs him back in the spotlight or it might fade away forever. If the desire is still there, don't be surprised if he whips up a media frenzy by reaching week two. 800

Kei Nishikori the Japanese wonderkid looked impressive in Brisbane before being troubled by a bicep injury. Hard training at the Bollettieri Academy through the off-season has him primed for a big year. Doubt he's ready to see off Murray in R3 yet though. 500

Ernests Gulbis took out Djokovic R1 in Brisbane before levelling off his form. In a section of the draw which could easily fall apart, at least until Murray in R4. Bookies know this bloke will starting stringing results together sooner or later so you won't get a massive price. 125

Marcos Baghdatis got some needed match practice under his belt at Kooyong, but the real issue is can his body stand up to five set matches again? Finalist here back in 06 but now barely in the top 100. Will have his army of fans screaming for him as per usual, but unless he's in top shape, he'll battle to make week two. Never rule him out though, when the desire is there, his stamina is unbreakable. 300

Jarkko Nieminen in great form with a win over Djokovic on the way to the final in Sydney. Could face him again if he gets past Mathieu in R1. 500

Bernard Tomic super-talented kid just like Jelena Dokic, has a complete nutter for a father. Such a shame, he could be anything. One for the future. 1000

The Bets:

The script says Federer v Murray final and I think it might be right. I can't have Nadal on hardcourt and Djokovic has question marks against him.

Roger Federer is my tip, however I'd rather back him late in the event (will be close to evens if facing Murray) rather than before he meets Safin and del Potro who can do anything on their given days.

So instead, I'm looking to the exotics. Most British bookies are betting on each quarter, so the two I've picked out are Monfils to win Q1 at 10 (Boylesports and Skybet), and Roddick to win Q3 at 13 (Boyles), for 1pt each.

One outright bet:

0.5pt Monfils 60 or better.

There will be an update at the halfway stage posted on the PuntingAce site to reassess the fitness, form and value as we progress. Note when placing your bets, there are several sets of rules re paying out on a completed match (match must be completed, ball must be served or somewhere in the middle) plus many UK bookies have specials (money-back if your player beaten when leading two sets to love, money back on outright if Player X wins title etc). Shop around for the best deals!

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