The Australian Open Mens Draw Betting Preview

By Scott Ferguson

The 2008 season opens with the traditional Australian Open in Melbourne. But it's a little different than recent years. The TAB betting tent has been booted out of Melbourne Park because the ATP and ITF have finally recognised there is more than a 'perceived' problem of match-fixing in the game. After years of players getting to stuck to Rebound Ace on stinking hot days, the surface has been changed to Plexicushion and despite all the press statements, nobody has really worked out yet whether it's faster or slower, or helps the grinder or the power player.

Roger Federer arrives as a clear favourite but has to break a bit of history to triumph here. Rafael Nadal who is yet to reach a Slam semi-final on hardcourt has the chance of walking away as world number one if the cards fall his way. And the man with the best recent record against Federer will be lucky if he even starts on Monday. But one other point to note - in seven of the last ten years, there has been a first-time finalist in the men's draw in Melbourne.

Running down the draw:

1. Federer - if triumphant will become the first player in the Open era to win this title three years in a row. And to do so, he'll have to become the first player since Boris Becker in the early 90s to win without playing a lead-up event. A virus forced him out of the Kooyong Invitational, his traditional route to the tournament. Remember he is coming off his worst season for a few years, 68-9 on the tour and another couple of losses in exhibitions mean his grip on the top spot isn't as secure as it was. But when you have lost only one match in four years at Melbourne, Wimbledon or Flushing Meadow, it's pretty obvious that Federer now plans his life around the Slams. Nothing to worry about in his draw, a possible replay of last year's final vs Gonzalez in the quarters, and Djokovic/Baghdatis/Safin/Nalbandian or Ferrer in the semis. He'll be well and truly tuned up by week two. At around 1.7 I think he's the right price - enough queries to contemplate laying him, but on the other side, enough proven class that he deserves to be odds-on.

16. Berdych - consistent, reaching R4 in six of the last seven Slams. Drawn to face Federer there this time with no real blocks in his way. Beat Federer once, but has only won one set off him in five matches since. 200

12. Blake - bombed out in R1 to Santoro in Sydney, making a mess of his lead-up campaign. He'd won there the two previous years. Still yet to get past R4 here, and despite ranking as high as four, his Grand Slam best is just two QFs in New York. That's poor. Grosjean or Ljubicic in R3 will test him, or Gonzalez in R4. 350

24. Ljubicic - went 0-3 at Kooyong last week. In 33 Slam events, he has reached one QF and one semi (Melbourne, Roland Garros respectively 2006) and the rest are R3 or worse. That is underachievement on a grand scale for a bloke who has earned over $6m on the tour. Plays the top seed from qualifying, Dutchman Robin Haase, who beat Baghdatis recently in Chennai. A banker to underachieve again. 1000

7. Gonzalez - has a lot of points to defend here after his glorious run to the final in 2007. If he bombed in R1, his ranking would go from 7 out to 26. Didn't do a lot else last season, made the final in Rome, and shocked Federer in Shanghai but ended the season with four losses in his last five matches - the one victory being over a complacent Federer. Has a relatively easy quarter but bear in mind his Slam record isn't great either - 30 starts, just a final, three QFs and a R4 to show for it. Should meet Federer again in the quarters. 150

3. Djokovic - the big mover in 2007 and the one rightly poised to be the next new winner of a Grand Slam. Last year saw him climb from 15 to three in the rankings, defeat Federer and Nadal for the first time and reach the US Open final. In that final he blew points to win the first two sets; surely experience will see him get over that, after his record in finals at all Tour levels is 13-3. In a tricky quarter with Tursunov R3, Hewitt/Safin/Baghdatis R4, Nalbandian/Stepanek/Ferrer in the quarters. I still expect to see him face Federer in the semis. 13

32. Tursunov - won Sydney last week, that's a pretty good formline, beating four players who have been top 30 or better at some stage plus the awkward Guccione, and dropping only one set to Gasquet along the way. Good enough to go places, but has Malisse and Querrey in his path before Djokovic in R3. 500

19. Hewitt - just one final appearance here and no better than QF in a Grand Slam in last two years. Now under the tutelage of supercoach Tony Roche, you'd think this was his last chance to catch up with the game that is slipping away from him. In his 12th visit to Melbourne Park in January, that final (lost to Safin 2005) is his only result better than R4 (three times). He has won more matches at all the other Slams than his home one. Faced with Safin/Baghdatis R3, Djokovic R4 and Ferrer/Nalbandian/Stepanek QF, I struggle to see him making it further than the second Monday. 200

Safin - had written him off as being unable to perform at his best anymore due to chronic injury issues, but he did come out and cream Murray 6-1 6-4 at Kooyong last week. Sure it was an exhibition match but perhaps there is life in the old dog yet and Melbourne is the scene of some of his best tennis. We will soon find out as he's facing Gulbis then Baghdatis or T.Johansson in the first two rounds. No room for complacency there. 150

15. Baghdatis - finalist here in 2006, bombed early here last year. Becoming a more consistent player but still loses in his first round too often for a top-ranker. Two good wins at Kooyong will have him ready for action, facing T.Johansson in R1 followed by Safin or Gulbis, he will need to hit the ground running to progress through to face Hewitt then Djokovic. Great crowd support when in Melbourne, always capable of pulling off big results. 100

10. Nalbandian - the real question here is will Nalbandian play? Back spasms forced him out of Kooyong and his participation is still not assured. Should he pull out in time, seed 17 (Ljubicic) would take his place in the draw. Nalby looked like chronic knee problems were going to send his career to an early retirement home but a new fitness regime implemented late last year brought immediate results, winning consecutive Masters Series events, and defeating Federer (twice), Nadal (twice) and Djokovic along the way. Consistent record here, three QFs, a semi and R4 in the past five years. If fit, he is the wildcard who can do what Safin used to. 17

30. Stepanek - one of the ugliest men in world tennis, yet after dumping Hingis, he now finds himself engaged to Czech stunner Nicole Vaidisova. There's hope for us all yet! Not the greatest Slam record, just once past R3 (Wimbledon QF 06) in 21 main draws, but he went within a couple of points of beating Djokovic in New York last year in R2. Held a 2-0 lead to Ferrer here last year before losing in five - they're likely to meet again in R3. 600

Bottom half

8. Gasquet - strong mover into the top 10 last year and perched at the top of the weakest quarter of the draw. Beat Blake, Djokovic, Murray and Roddick last year but hasn't troubled the top pair in a while. Can go a long way from this draw. One thing to note about him - the French media rate him as soft as butter - he has retired or given walkovers a ridiculous 12 times in his pro career already, and he's only 21. If it's hot or he looks like he might have broken a fingernail, have a punt and lay him heavily at a short price, you could just strike the jackpot. Perhaps worth an outside punt at 150 or so, but wouldn't want to put any serious cash on him until he toughens up.

Tsonga - along with Safin, the player that none of the seeds wanted to face in R1. Probably a bit one-dimensional to beat the very intelligent Murray over five sets, but the Scot wouldn't want to have an off day. 1000

9. Murray - looked rusty in Doha before taking the title with a win over Wawrinka. Also comprehensively beat Davydenko to show he now has the wood over him. Assuming he can get past Tsonga in R1, his draw looks great. No reason why he can't beat Gasquet in R4 although the slate is currently 0-2, and Youzhny/Karlovic/Wawrinka/Davydenko lay in waiting in the QF slot. He is one of the most court-smart players on the tour, I don't think he's ready to win one of these just yet, but he'll start going close this year. 16

14. Youzhny - a consistent R3/R4 player at the Slams with the exception of a US Open semi on 2006. He got a brief taste of being in the top 10 last year, and no doubt will be keen to regain that mantle. R3 v Karlovic, R4 v Wawrinka or Davydenko. Good enough to poke his way through to the semis if the cards fall into place. 2-5 on hardcourt matches going to five sets. 80

20. Karlovic - I mentioned some piss poor Slam results earlier but this takes the cake for a player in the top 25. In 18 Grand Slam main draws, he has won just 11 matches, and only one from four visits in Melbourne. Not expecting to see him in week two. 1000

26. Wawrinka - runner-up in Doha, taking a set off Murray, then was jetlagged on day one in Sydney, losing to eventual winner Tursunov. R3 here last year, tricky R1 clash v Benneteau. 800

4. Davydenko - has been very consistent in Slams over past three seasons - QF three years in a row here, QF/SF over same period at Roland Garros, and two semis in a row at Flushing Meadow. It will be interesting to hear the Aussie reaction to this guy being responsible for the TAB tent being banished from Melbourne Park after a decade of no issues. Will the local media hound him at all? When in form, he is a top player but when being harassed about off-court issues, his mind can waiver. No easy matches in his path but Youzhny should be the first real test in R4 followed by Gasquet or Murray. 150

6. Roddick - won his third straight Kooyong Classic last week which should ensure he'll reach week two. Consistent record here - SF, R4, SF, QF, SF over the past five years, but yet to crack that elusive final. Has been beaten by Federer in his last three hardcourt Slams and by the losing Aus Open finalist the previous four years. That's gotta hurt. Nadal in the quarters, Gasquet/Murray/Davydenko in the semi. If he is still a threat, then he should reach the final here, but I just can't back him - I don't think he's a Group 1 horse. 34

29. Kohlschreiber - good win in Auckland but there was only one player inside the top 15 there. Good match v Korolev in R2, cannon fodder for Roddick in R3. 1000

24. Nieminen - survived the Adelaide heat to reach the final there so will be acclimatised. Has beaten Robredo, likely R3 foe, on hardcourt before. 1000

11. Robredo - has taken Baghdatis, Nalbandian and Federer to stop him in past three years, so no slouch on this surface, reaching R4 and the quarters in 06 and 07. Might be sayonara at R4 again at the hands of Roddick. 800

16. Moya - lost to Nadal in a three-set thriller in Chennai over four hours recently. Made two QF appearances in Slams last year, but has three straight R1 exits here. Faces Koubek R1 here and his record is only 4-3, after a three-set win in Sydney last week. 800

23. Mathieu - had left hamstring problems in Adelaide and Sydney, and gets no extra rest, being first up on Monday. Expecting to see him continue to rise in the rankings this year, but he's cut from the same cloth as Gasquet - 11 retirements or walkovers in his pro career. If wanting to oppose him, I'd be making sure the bookie doesn't require match to be completed. 600

2. Nadal - should Rafa win this tournament and Federer not reach the final, the Pearl of Manacor will walk away with the no.1 ranking. To do that however, he needs to defy his poor Grand Slam record on hardcourt - yet to reach a semi-final. In three trips to Melbourne, he has been beaten by Hewitt twice and Gonzalez last year on his way to the final. Not bad form per se, but could be better for a guy who has been world number two for 128 straight weeks. With this draw, he should be second favourite, but the worry is how he pulled up in Chennai after three tiebreak sets against Moya. Stiff as a board, he was hammered 0 and 1 by Youzhny in the final. A 21yo should not wake up creaking like an old man. He'll have 36hrs break between matches in Melbourne but it's not a good sign about a player reported to have nagging foot problems. Can reach the final from here, don't see too many troubles for him until week two. 10

THE BETS

I am struggling to find a position to take here. This could be one where we just have to wait and see how the tournament progresses, taking note of advice on each player.

Federer being so short makes it tough to trade on anyone at big odds. And as mentioned above, 1.7 is about the right price. It's hard to assess Nadal and Nalbandian without seeing them on court.The player at some value I can see making a bit of a run is Mikhail Youzhny. If you can back him each-way at 50 or find a 'To Reach Final' price at 16 or better, have a nibble. Radek Stepanek could just surprise a couple at a massive price.

1. 0.5pt Youzhny to Reach Final
2. 0.25pt Stepanek outright, to trade
   

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