2008 Tennis Review & 2009 Preview

2008 was a very eventful year on the tennis circuit. We started with Novak Djokovic winning his first Slam in Melbourne, defeating a new star on the scene, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Roger Federer's reign looked dodgy at that stage, then he went to Indian Wells and Miami, not even reaching the final at either event. The women's tour was in shock when Justine Henin called stumps just before her dominant event, the French Open. Since then, no woman has seemed to want the top ranking, with four women sharing it between them, and a Slam maiden currently on top (Jelena Jankovic).

Federer's crusade to win the French Open was put to rest with an utter humiliation at the hands of Rafa Nadal, allowing the then no.1 just four games. At Wimbledon we were treated to the best final, if not the best match ever seen at SW19. But losing the Wimbledon crown brought the inevitable curtain to the Swiss champion's reign at the top. Just four titles for the year was his lowest return since 2002, but remember he has still reached 13 of the last 14 Grand Slam finals and his late-season run winning the US Open and Basel before struggling with a back injury.

The big movers of the year came from a mix of realising long-predicted potential, returns from injury and hard graft. Of the non-injury improvers:

Andy Murray: 11th to 4th with back-to-back Masters Series titles, a US Open final appearance and wins over Djokovic, Federer and Nadal. He is the real deal and will put pressure on those above him, particularly in the early half of the season when he doesn't have a lot of points to defend.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: 43rd to 6th. There had been murmurs about how good this guy was in 07 but there weren't too many backing him to reach the final of the Australian Open. His rise to the top 10 is amazing considering he lost three months due to a knee injury, missing the chance for big points at the French Open and Wimbledon. You'd think a big lug like him would have trouble moving around the court, but he is certainly more than just a one-dimensional power hitter. Let's hope he can stay fit and put pressure on the top five, he is a breath of fresh air to the tour.

Gilles Simon: 29th to 7th. This guy looked like nothing special just a good solid player until Toronto where he came from a set and a break down against Federer to win. A few months later he did it to Nadal in Madrid and then repeated the effort against Federer in Shanghai. Phenomenal stamina and determination - if there's ever a player you want to back when it looks all over, this is the one. Great results in Masters Series and lesser events, still yet to get past R3 in a Slam, so there is potentially more in the tank.

Juan Martin del Potro: 44th to 9th. I've been waiting for this guy to hit his straps for a couple of years. Went on an incredible run after Wimbledon, winning four events in a row and bursting into tears after losing to Murray in the quarters in New York. A bit soft you might say, but it's a great sign of his desire. He had injury niggles for most of the year, the US was the only Slam he was fit for. There's a lot more to come from him.

Stanislas Wawrinka: 36th to 13th. Clay is his surface and on the back of dirt success, he cracked the top 10 mid-year. Can perform on hardcourt, but doesn't look like he'll ever threaten the big names on it. Hard to see him getting much higher unless he can match it with the big guns.

Gael Monfils: 38th to 14th. Has promised so much since he won three of the junior Slams back in 2004, but finally realised that with two strong Slam results, in the only ones he was fit for. Took a set off Federer in the semi at Roland Garros, then under new coach Roger Rasheed, reached R4 in New York. Had he been fit for Melbourne or Wimbledon, he probably would have finished in the top 10. If he can stay fit, he has plenty of improvement left.

Robin Soderling: 41st to 17th. All down to his record indoors where he was 23-7 and reached four finals. Take him outdoors and he's ordinary.

Marin Cilic: 71st to 23rd. Big improver based on all-round talent. Probably best suited to hard and grass, but having played a lot of events in 2008 with no injuries, he'll have to start winning titles to push further.

Marcello Granollers: 132nd to 56th. Hard grinder on the clay challenger circuit but took Tsonga to the wire in Madrid. Never past R2 of a Slam, now he's in the main draw he'll be able to improve that.

Viktor Troicki: 128th to 57th. Big improvement based on playing a lot of matches. Spurred on by the success of other Serbians, the burden of playing so many qualifying events will be lessened, still improvement to come.

Eduardo Schwank: 175th to 58th. Heavy focus on clay but with a lower ranking comes the requirement to play varied events. Seems decent on other surfaces (beat Simon indoor) so don't underestimate him.

Kei Nishikori: 287th to 63rd. Exceptional talent who has just turned 19. Finished the year with a knee injury, but has been preparing well in the off-season. In the Bollettieri camp, he'll be pushing top 20 at the end of year and don't be surprised if he makes an impact at his first Aus Open.

Jeremy Chardy: 192nd to 75th. Reached the fourth round at Roland Garros defeating Nalbandian and Tursunov. Appears twice on the 1.01 comeback list.

Diego Junqeira: 229th to 78th. Watch this guy make some noise in the early clay events.

And those who went the wrong way:

Stefan Koubek: 47th to 192nd. Injured for most of the year and about to turn 32, unlikely to return.

Sebastien Grosjean: 53rd to 170th. Injury-plagued and barely won a match after Australian swing. Former top-tenner on the wrong side of 30.

Juan Ignacio Chela: 20th to 140th. Not played since the French Open due to a shoulder injury.

Marcos Baghdatis: 16th to 98th. Injury-plagued with shoulder, ankle and back problems. Take out a few wins at Aus Open and Wimbledon, and you wouldn't have noticed him all year. Only 23, plenty of time to return to his best and has arrived in Australia early to prepare.

Guillermo Canas: 15th to 80th. Wrist injury ruined his off-season and thus left him without momentum going into early season. At 31, hard to see him coming back inside top 30.

Lleyton Hewitt: 21st to 67th. Hip injury means it's likely his best is behind him. He's made his millions, got the soap star wife, can you really see him cracking the top 10 again?

Juan Carlos Ferrero: 24th to 55th. Hamstring, knee and shoulder injuries, now prefers hardcourt rather than clay. Not over the hill yet.

Carlos Moya: 17th to 42nd. Enjoys life on the circuit too much to fade away in a hurry, but can't see him returning to the top bracket again.

Richard Gasquet: 8th to 25th. Went backwards this year with a mix of injuries and unlucky draws at the Slams. Lacked bottle in the clinches in a few big matches. Always appeared suspect with numerous withdrawals due to injury, might need to see a shrink to get back into the top 10 again.

Men to watch in 2009:

Nishikori - there's still plenty left to come from him.
Robin Haase - enormous talent from Holland who missed much of 2009 with a knee injury. Reports are he won't come to Australia but watch for him as the season goes on.

Gasquet - a new coach, a new aggressive strategy and out to Brisbane early for the new season. He is good enough to contend for major titles.

Andrey Golubev - 21yo Kazakh who moved up 88 places in 2008 and will continue to improve when he starts making main draws regularly.

It's never over until the fat lady sings...

58 matches in 2008 had a seemingly "home and hosed" player matched at 1.01 for decent money and then getting rolled. It can happen at any time but I doubt laying that price blindly makes any money with so many matches played. But when you know players have a history of amazing comebacks or big collapses, you can trade accordingly.

Interestingly, of those 58 matches, 45 times it was the favourite being turned over after having the unassailable lead. That probably makes sense as the outsider often won’t go 1.01 until the final point is won. You could always try to blindly lay the fav at 1.01 and the dog at 1.05 for the jackpot result.

Nadal, Federer, Djokovic, Serena and Sharapova all appear on this infamous list, but the repeat offenders (all twice) were Agnes Szavay, Kateryna Bondarenko, Yaroslava Shvedova, Carlos Moya and Stanislas Wawrinka.

Players to follow when they look like toast are Na Li, Dinara Safina (successive matches at the French Open), Andreas Seppi (has done it twice to Hewitt now, in 06 and 08), Jeremy Chardy and Gilles Simon (against Federer and Nadal! Plus another 1.02 against Federer in Shanghai).

Big improvers on the WTA Tour:

Dinara Safina: 15th to 3rd. The family talent shone through, went on a fantastic run from May onwards. She'll win a Slam in 2009.

Elena Dementieva: 11th to 4th. She has been this high before but this time she appears to have fixed her serve. Probably the best groundstrokes on the women's tour, capable of winning something big.

Agnieszka Radwanska: 26th to 10th. Another big move up the rankings and expect her to start making her mark in big tournaments this season.

Caroline Wozniacki: 60th to 12th. Another former junior champ now making an impact. Do we know just how good she can be?
Alize Cornet: 55th to 16th. Developing into quite a player but I don't see her as strong enough to compete in the majors. But I could be wrong.

Dominika Cibulkova: 51st to 19th. Big rise but lots of niggling injuries as well. More to come from her.

Jie Zheng: 163rd to 25th. A great year for the Wimbledon semi-finalist, but more mature than most.

Alisa Kleybanova: 156th to 32nd. Big girl, loads of talent. Needs to lay off the Krispy Kremes to reach the top 20.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: 286th to 45th. Highly-talented 17yo with more improvement to come.

Players to watch in 2009

Michelle Larcher de Brito - still only 15 and had some nice wins in 08. Allowed to play more events after January and will be heading towards the top. Will be very surprised if she’s not top five within three years.

Sabine Lisicki - Bollettieri stable, big improver last year and posted wins over Safina, Chakvetadze, Peer and Davenport. Has a powerful game and very highly rated.

Michaela Krajicek – another from the Bollettieri stable, plagued by injuries last year and has a huge game.

Tatiana Golovin - had just started making an impact when serious injuries stopped her in her tracks. This girl could be anything.
Tamira Paszek - went backwards last year with a few injuries, she's too good not to bounce back.

Stay tuned for my Australian Open preview in a few weeks' time.

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© 2007 Punting Ace.com